Dodgers are +105 today (4/20)????

hogua · #1 04-20-2005, 01:40 PM

Is the public celebrating 420 day early or what??? I don't see why the Dodgers are dogs tonight.

What am I missing???

mrbaseball · #2 04-20-2005, 02:00 PM

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What am I missing???

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you looking for? LA on the road. Pitching matchup about even. Lowe off to a bit better start. Both guys changed teams and leave respective world series teams. For champs, Bosox won 58% of Lowes starts and Cards won 65% of Williams starts.

LA has been scoring a few more runs but this is only from a very small early season sample.

Looks like a coinflip to me and that is basically what the line is.

hogua · #3 04-20-2005, 02:31 PM

Sorry... I guess that's my point. I'll take a coin flip at +105 any day. I was just surprised that the odds for this coin flip are better than even money.

scott8 · #4 04-20-2005, 02:36 PM

The line is not a coinflip.
Successful sports handicappers do not pass up a +105 edge if the bet appears even.

mrbaseball · #5 04-20-2005, 03:05 PM

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The line is not a coinflip.

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As I said "basically" a coinflip. I haven't dug deep into this matchup yet but on a cursory look it seemed about even. If I find value on either side once I do dig in I decide if I play it or not. If in deed it is a pure coinflip this is as small an edge as possible. I tend to concentrate more on the 30 to 50 cent edges that pop up daily.

DougOzzzz · #6 04-20-2005, 08:09 PM

Lowe sucked last year. He was absolutely TERRIBLE, and I mean TERRIBLE, on the road. The Sox scored like 25 runs a game in his starts, in which he somehow turned a 21.50 RA into a winning record.

I strongly advise against betting on the Dodgers now. The team is off to a good start, but the public is going to bet them now like they are the best team in baseball. They might be, but it's far more likely they're just slightly above average.

mrbaseball · #7 04-20-2005, 09:13 PM

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Successful sports handicappers do not pass up a +105 edge if the bet appears even.

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Actually I think most successful handicappers realize that they can't possibly handicap to a 5 cent certainty and that a much larger edge is neccessary to bet with any kind of conviction. On this game I cannot discern an edge either way large enough to bet on.

scott8 · #8 04-20-2005, 11:58 PM

Then we agree to disagree.
I think its rare that a large edge is found, where the small edges are the ones that lead to long term success.

redrooski24 · #9 04-21-2005, 02:27 AM

I most definitely took the Dodgers on this one as Williams and the Padres are overated beyond belief. Glad the Dodgers pulled it out.

DougOzzzz · #10 04-21-2005, 07:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Then we agree to disagree.
I think its rare that a large edge is found, where the small edges are the ones that lead to long term success.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with mrbaseball. +105 on a what is judged to be a pure coinflip (50% chance of winning), is much smaller than most successful sports bettors minimum edge. Unless you bet <1% of your BR on each game, you have a pretty strong risk of going broke ASSUMING you evaluated the game correctly.

What I see as the main problem with this though, is I think nobody is that great at handicapping that they can honestly say this game is EXACTLY a coinflip. For some reason or another, the betting public doesn't agree with you when you place your bet. For that reason, I feel it necessary to have some sort of "cushion", of more than 10 points. That way, my evaluation can be slightly off and the bet will still be profitable.

In other words, when I evaluate a game, I assume my evaluation isn't perfect. Therefore, I need a bigger edge to be reasonably certain the bet is actually profitable.