Ugly turn card for my set UB 2-4

ohkanada · #1 04-19-2005, 09:05 PM

UTG ($205) makes it $8. Middle position ($318) calls. I call ($545) with 99. SB folds and BB calls.

4 of us see a flop of QsJs9d.

Raiser leads for $4. Middle position makes it $25. I make it $75. Raiser calls. Middle position folds.

Turn is Ts.

Raiser bets $121 allin. Pot has about 330.

Board is 4 to a straight and a flush is possible.

My play? Raiser is 33/12. Most of his raises are mini-raises like this hand.

Ken

sourbeaver · #2 04-19-2005, 09:24 PM

Whether he has the straight or flush has no real impact on your redraw. So here's what it looks like if he has one of those.

9c 9h 20.45
Ks Ah 79.55

You're 1/5 to win and you have to pay a bit more than 1/3.

For this call to be correct, villain would have to push with neither the flush, the straight or a higher set around 20% of the time. I say Fold.

xorbie · #3 04-19-2005, 09:29 PM

You have about the right odds to chase a boat, plus he could have two pair, maybe.

xorbie · #4 04-19-2005, 09:35 PM

You're paying 1/4, if I read right.

sourbeaver · #5 04-19-2005, 09:44 PM

121/330

Garland · #6 04-19-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raiser bets $121 allin. Pot has about 330.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugly turn? Yes.

But you're given about 3:1 with about 4:1 odds on filling up, plus there's no guarantee that your opponent isn't making a play at you with the scare card, which more than makes up for the difference in odds (your hand could very well be good). A more interesting scenario is if he had a bigger stack behind...now that would put you to the test.

Garland

sourbeaver · #7 04-20-2005, 10:03 AM

I don't think the difference in odds can really make up for the fact that he can put a move on you. Add the possibility of a higher set to the mix. I think it's a very borderline, perhaps losing play to call.

etgryphon · #8 04-20-2005, 10:23 AM

Well I'm guessing the BB folded somewhere on the flop.

Does anybody think it is weird that the UTG bet $4 into a $34 then cold called a raise and a reraise? What is the read on this guy?

The small bet and cold call have me put on the brakes.

-Gryph

sourbeaver · #9 04-20-2005, 10:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The small bet and cold call have me put on the brakes.

-Gryph

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. I'd think he has either a very strong draw and isn't aggro or he has a made hand.

ohkanada · #10 04-20-2005, 10:36 AM

Thanks for responding.

I forgot to mention one thing that did give me 2 more nut outs. I had the 9s so even if he has a flush, I have an open-ended straight flush draw. Hopefully he doesn't have the royal!

I was really confused on how he played the flop. I couldn't see him having a flush after cold-calling another 71 on the flop.

I figured if I was behind he likely had KK. Hopefully he didn't also have a straight flush draw because if he does then I need to fill to win. With KK half the time he has no flush draw so now I can fill or flush to win the pot.

I also thought there was a small chance he had a bigger set than me. Well in that case I have all my flush outs to beat him on the river.

And would he bet allin if he did have a flush or a straight? Maybe I guess.

In the end those added flush outs, and his general fishy stats I decided to call.

River was a Qd. I filled up. He showed AcQh. So he was dead to a few of the kings or a few of the eights (tie).

Ken