1/2 Live

radioheadfan · #1 04-19-2005, 03:21 PM

I'm UTG+1 with QQ. UTG raises to $15 (standard in this game) with $300 behind. UTG seemed like a tight-normal player. Right now I'm calling his raise for set value because I suspect I might be beat. The guy immediately to my left re-raises to $35 fairly quickly after I make the call for $15. This player had played very few hands and had not shown much aggression thus far. So it's clear he has a big hand (AA, KK or AK it looks like). It folds around back to UTG and he folds after thinking for about 10 secs. There's 15+15+35=$65 in the pot and UTG has $45 more in his stack, and I have to call $20 to continue.

What's the plan?

etgryphon · #2 04-19-2005, 03:31 PM

If you put him on AA/KK specifically, then you do not have the implied odds to continue. If you put him on any range of hands greater than AA/KK then I would call. But his stack is so short now compared to the pot I might just reraise him allin. But, you might be able to get away from a A high or a K high flop.

So it really comes down to putting him on specifically AA/KK

-Gryph

rikz · #3 04-19-2005, 03:56 PM

What are the odds? Let me try it out.

Isn't it a little worse than 8:1 to hit a set on the flop: ((2 outs / 50 unknown cards) * 3 cards on the flop ) * 100 percent = 12%, then 100%/12% = 8.33:1 odds ?

If so, then let's assume that if you hit a set, you'll get the rest of his stack on the turn and/or river. Further assuming that you don't worry about the odds of hitting set over set where you flop QQQ and villain has KKK or AAA, then you need ($pot + $villain's stack) to be greater than (8 x $toCall) in order to call. In this case, ($65 + $45 = $110) is not greater than (8 * $20 = $160), so folding is better if you think he would only reraise preflop like this with AA or KK.

Is my math pretty close to being right?

Thanks.

radioheadfan · #4 04-19-2005, 05:03 PM

You're math is a little off, but the point is I know I don't have odds to spike a set. The thing is, my table image is going to hell if I fold to his ridiculous little reraise I have to at least see the flop. If I don't, people will start to play back with little to nothing.

What if I call and then push any flop with an A in it? Obviously this is terrible when he has AA (if he has AA then the A won't flop very often so my strategy is protected by this fact) but it's terrific when he has KK. Hell, he might even have the other QQ in which case this play might also work.

Maybe look at a flop and fold? His stack size makes this real awkward to play...any other suggestions?