AK reraised and misses --- Tell me how to analyze this hand

Turtle · #1 04-18-2005, 07:47 PM

Trying to put my opponent on a hand and count my outs...

I can't count my outs as full outs after being reraised, can I?

And are my outs actually even fewer because of the probability that he bad guy has a hand similar to my own?

Just sat down, no reads on bad guy.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, CO folds.

Turn: (6.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

brazilio · #2 04-18-2005, 07:53 PM

I'm sure this is spewing and probably a stupid line, but I've occasionally checkraised the flop and folded the turn safely to the 3-bet. It's either that or I'm folding the turn UI.

Argus · #3 04-18-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure this is spewing and probably a stupid line, but I've occasionally checkraised the flop and folded the turn safely to the 3-bet. It's either that or I'm folding the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]
The hand I'm linking to is a bit different because it's HU, but I still think check/raising the flop hoping to fold the turn after being 3-bet is bad.

I like to cap this preflop with a 3rd player in and then lead out. Call a raise, or fire again on the turn if it's called around.

The way OP played I think it's better to check/call the flop and fold the turn UI. I figure you have 4.5 outs at most, which is not enough to call the turn in a pot this size.

CallMeIshmael · #4 04-18-2005, 08:21 PM

Given the way you've played this hannd, and assuming villian is solid, I think you need to call the turn.

If we assume that villian's 3-betting range is: AK + AA-TT, and that he would bet all of these hands when checked to on the flop/turn (as it probably a good assumption if villian is a solid unknown)

Hand, Combinations of,Outs

AA, 3, 0
KK, 3, 3
QQ, 6, 6
JJ, 6, 6
TT, 3, 0
AK, 9, 22

Adding these together, and dividing by 44 (total number of unseen cards) you get an average # of outs of: 6.34.

This is more than enough for you to call.

Note: this assumes that villian will not bet AK when checked to on the river unimproved. If he will (I wouldnt here, and thus that is why I am assuming this), then you have 2 outs vs AK instead of 22, and thus folding is in order (or calling the river... Im not sure which is better)

brazilio · #5 04-18-2005, 08:22 PM

I don't like folding a chopping or winning hand here if he's frisky with AQ, and although I also would have capped pf which would change the situation 100%, I really don't like c/c c/f on the flop and turn. I know this is ugly, but I don't have much in the way of information regarding preflop and the flop, and I think JJ, QQ, KK, and AA are going to 3-bet.

Turtle · #6 04-18-2005, 08:57 PM

Hand, Combinations of,Outs

AA, 3, 0
KK, 3, 3
QQ, 6, 6
JJ, 6, 6
TT, 3, 0
AK, 9, 22

Adding these together, and dividing by 44 (total number of unseen cards) you get an average # of outs of: 6.34.

This is more than enough for you to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ishmael-

Thanks for your post. I attempting the SSHE idea of half-outs, which gave me only three real outs...

Is the process you utilized similar to that used by Pokerstove?

I'm guessing you don't do this calculation with every new hand -- how do you do rough calculations while in a game? Or do situations come up frequently enough you just learn how to play them?

Thanks again-

jeff

CallMeIshmael · #7 04-18-2005, 09:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ishmael-

Thanks for your post. I attempting the SSHE idea of half-outs, which gave me only three real outs...

Is the process you utilized similar to that used by Pokerstove?

I'm guessing you don't do this calculation with every new hand -- how do you do rough calculations while in a game? Or do situations come up frequently enough you just learn how to play them?

Thanks again-

jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this process is similar to pokerstove. You are basically looking at his hand range, then finding the weighted average of how many outs you have.

The only problem with pokerstove here, is that it doesnt matter whether or not he bets the river with AK. But, in reality, that is a HUGE factor as to whether or not you can call.

Also, how did you get 3 outs??

The general rule of 3 outs for over cards given in SSHE takes into account reverse domination. But, with this board, and the fact that villians hand is VERY well defined, reverse domination isnt really a factor. The only problem is him having AA/KK.

Argus · #8 04-18-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ishmael-

Thanks for your post. I attempting the SSHE idea of half-outs, which gave me only three real outs...

Is the process you utilized similar to that used by Pokerstove?

I'm guessing you don't do this calculation with every new hand -- how do you do rough calculations while in a game? Or do situations come up frequently enough you just learn how to play them?

Thanks again-

jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this process is similar to pokerstove. You are basically looking at his hand range, then finding the weighted average of how many outs you have.

The only problem with pokerstove here, is that it doesnt matter whether or not he bets the river with AK. But, in reality, that is a HUGE factor as to whether or not you can call.

Also, how did you get 3 outs??

The general rule of 3 outs for over cards given in SSHE takes into account reverse domination. But, with this board, and the fact that villians hand is VERY well defined, reverse domination isnt really a factor. The only problem is him having AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like your analysis; I guess I was a bit stingy estimating outs. Do you think it's worth a call on the river to see if he'll fire the 3rd bullet with AK?

CallMeIshmael · #9 04-18-2005, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like your analysis; I guess I was a bit stingy estimating outs. Do you think it's worth a call on the river to see if he'll fire the 3rd bullet with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats the most interesting part of the hand (other than, perhaps, CRing the flop).

In this hand posted like yesterday, villian did 3-barel AK UI, so its certainly possible.

The pure odds of us being good (given the AA-TT + AK range) is 21:9.

But, we only get 1/2 of the pot when we are good, so its 21:4.5 = 4.67-1, which is more than good enough to call.

But, he doesnt bet AK all of the time here. So, it becomes, how often does he bet AK?

Like I said, the pot is offering us 9.16:1, so the break even point occurs when: 21:x = 9.16:1 => x=2.29

2.29 / 4.5 = 51%.

Does an opponent bet AK UI 51% of the time. I think the answer is no, and you can fold.

IMO, the turn bet can totally mean AK, but the river bet tends to mean I have a pair.

(This all assumes this is played vs a TAG. Vs a LAG, I cap preflop (still an option here) and go from there)

Turtle · #10 04-18-2005, 10:25 PM

"Also, how did you get 3 outs??"

I figured general reraising hands were AA, KK, QQ and AKs.

I was only ahead against QQ, and split with AK.

Didn't know the process you used, so just figured that each out would be good only half of the time it hit.

I'm still grappling a bit with the math.

Using the 3 out per overcard genral rule -- would you feel finding 6 outs in this scenario?

-jeff