Call or fold?

davidross · #1 04-17-2005, 04:10 AM

Saturday night $200K guaranteed. I've ridden the roller coaster all night. BUilt a nice stack in the first hour, then lost almost all of it on 2 gruesome rivers. THen with only 280 chips left I come back to over 10K. Now with 220 left (140 paid) I've been blinded down to 7900.

blinds 200/400. I raise to 1000 in EP with AKo. SB (loosie) calls and now BB pushes. He has me covered, and I'm almost positive he has a pair, but fairly certian I'm in a race.

I almost always call here, I'm getting the right price if my read is right...but.

sloth469 · #2 04-17-2005, 04:21 AM

Any chance AQ is in this guys range here? If he's putting you on a mid-pair he'd be getting the right price w/ the SB coming along for a 1k over-lay. If you can add AQ and AK to his range your equity goes up handsomely, and I probably go here.

Actually, upon further review, are we expecting SB to go away with this raise?

-sloth

Eihli · #3 04-17-2005, 04:23 AM

You stack isn't too short right here. I would fold this. Pass up a slight +EV if it allows you to make a larger +EV bet tomorrow yeah?

sloth469 · #4 04-17-2005, 04:28 AM

So what do you concider a slight edge? Seems to be a recurring question around these parts.

Tyler Durden · #5 04-17-2005, 04:31 AM

I'd almost never fold here and I think I'm right, but I'd like to hear if others think this should be a fold.

Eihli · #6 04-17-2005, 04:39 AM

I changed my mind, this isn't a slight edge.

wAzZu24 · #7 04-17-2005, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd almost never fold here and I think I'm right, but I'd like to hear if others think this should be a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Piers · #8 04-17-2005, 08:57 AM

Easy call, there is usually plenty of decent tourneys around on Sunday evening, so no problem if you bust out.

davidross · #9 04-17-2005, 11:52 AM

I'm probably just struggling with the result. He had JJ and I did call, and got bounced. Earlier in the evening aloose cannon made the same move when I held JJ and I called. He had KQ and hit to take me out of that one too.

I guess what I'm fighting with is that If I was writing down cardinal rules for tournaments, 2 of the top 5 would say 1) Don't call big bets with AK...2) Don't mess with stacks that can bust you. Although it would really have hurt to part with 1000 chips at this point, I could live to fight another day.

Prime Time · #10 04-17-2005, 11:56 AM

you made the rite read and play.
You win this race, and off to the races you go.
You got to get a little lucky to win.
Don't beat your self up about this one.

PGA71