More river play.

cold_cash · #1 04-16-2005, 03:11 PM

Button here was largely unknown to me. He did seem more aggressive than your average player though. Other than that I don't know anything about him.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (10.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...?

JDErickson · #2 04-16-2005, 03:16 PM

I hate this situation. You are screwed no matter what you do.

If you ck it you will probably lose to a Q or some crap. If you bet you will get raised.

bleh, I don't know

Piiop · #3 04-16-2005, 03:20 PM

Yeah, thats a tough one.

I'd check. He's not calling a bet here with anything you beat.

So the question is check-call or check-fold. I'd call. Decent sized pot, he may bluff something occasionally, and you get some info on him.

cold_cash · #4 04-16-2005, 03:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I hate this situation. You are screwed no matter what you do.

If you ck it you will probably lose to a Q or some crap. If you bet you will get raised.

bleh, I don't know

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, this is exactly how I felt about the situation.

Perseus · #5 04-16-2005, 03:36 PM

Check-call this. You're not getting called by anything that you beat, but a check might induce a bluff by a hand with a lone diamond, and the pot is big enough.

chesspain · #6 04-16-2005, 04:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...a check might induce a bluff by a hand with a lone diamond, and the pot is big enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that the button raised four limpers PF, and then called the flop/turn, the only logical, worse hands that he could have are AJ with one diamond. Consequently, is there a really at least 10% chance that he has one of these hands and decides to take a stab at this pot? Furthermore, if he has TT/JJ, he's not folding the river after calling the turn, so betting the river seems out of the question.

Consequently, I'm leaning towards check-folding.

CallMeIshmael · #7 04-16-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Consequently, I'm leaning towards check-folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

The board just came down too hard.

cold_cash · #8 04-16-2005, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Consequently, I'm leaning towards check-folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I really wanted to do, but unfortunately for me I'm not good enough to do it yet. I checked and called and I honest to God don't know what I expected to beat.

He had AK.

I have got to get better at these situations. Seriously. I know, (or at least I think I know), what the right play is, but I just can't make it.

littlejohn · #9 04-16-2005, 04:52 PM

Not that this provides you with any solace - but I feel the same as you. Folding the river for 1 bet in a semi big pot seems anti majorkong. I do think I am getting better at it though - but yes I feel very much like you in this instance.

StellarWind · #10 04-16-2005, 05:19 PM

Many better hands such as JJ, TT, and A9s are likely to give a free showdown. Betting is out of the question.

Even a lot of 2+2ers have trouble releasing busted overcards after they raise preflop. I'm not going to credit a random but pretty aggressive player with the sense to fold AJ/AT on the turn. Another serious possiblity is he flopped a second pair 88-55 and is hanging on in hopes you are bluffing.

Your chances of being ahead are not as bad as many seem to think. The problem with calling a bet is his losing hands are all strong enough to beat a busted flush draw, so why bluff them? The positive reason for calling a bet is AK is the only likely hand for him to value bet on the river. Barring a big slowplay, most of his other good hands would have been in your face before now. Has he really got enough hands to value bet so that they outnumber bluffs more than 11-1?

Betting is bad. The call-fold decision doesn't matter much. 11-1 is pretty good odds and calling can't be that bad.