The Fish: Make Them Pay or Shut Them Out?

[EasilyFound]

A theory question that mostly applies to lower level SNGs. I play the $11s. It is an early round, when the fish are out. Your read of the situation is that you have the best hand and the flop gives a fish a flush draw. Assuming the read is correct, do you try to take the pot down right away by pushing or overbetting the pot, or do you make bets that give your opponent incorrect odds to play, even though you know that they will probably draw anyway?

[RobGW]

I ususally bet the pot on the flop and if the turn does not complete the flush then I bet as much as I think he will call on the turn. If the turn completes the flush then I can get away from it.

[citanul]

giving your opponents the correct immediate odds to play a flush draw in nl with a small pot is just stupid. especially at the lower levels when they're likely to be fine getting all in on the flop with a flush draw, following a plan that may get them to do that is quite alright.

citanul

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
giving your opponents the correct immediate odds to play a flush draw in nl with a small pot is just stupid. especially at the lower levels when they're likely to be fine getting all in on the flop with a flush draw, following a plan that may get them to do that is quite alright.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me revise the question slightly. Maybe this situation arises very infrequently at PartyPoker or once the blinds get even a little bit high. But suppose it is the first hand or that both of you have a deep stack, and you know or are reasonable sure that your opponent will fold if you go all-in or bet an amount that will prevent them from chasing. Do you prefer that move or to allow them to draw, but at a price that is wrong to chase? In other words, do you just want to take the hand down immediately, even if the pot is smallish, or allow them to draw, so long as they pay for it?

[microbet]

Make them overpay for the draw. In a tournament, ICM should be taken into account so you should try and make them pay a bit more for the draw than you would if you just consider the odds they are getting since each extra chip is worth a little less.

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
Make them overpay for the draw. In a tournament, ICM should be taken into account so you should try and make them pay a bit more for the draw than you would if you just consider the odds they are getting since each extra chip is worth a little less.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you willingly take the risk that they will outdraw you so long as you get the right price. I usually do that also, but when the other guy sucks out his flush playing 9-4 of clubs in a raised pot, I sometimes wonder whether I should just have gone all-in on the flop and discouraged them from playing instead of making pot-sized bets each round. But I guess that's poker.

[maddog2030]

I crunched some numbers under a few assumptions:

1) You raised pf and your opponent called and flopped only a flush draw
2) You have the best hand and your opponent must hit his flush
3) Your opponent will call any bet to chase including an allin
4) This is the first hand in the game, blinds are 15/30 in a full $10 9 player STT

If your opponent folds to your flop all in, your equity is clear: .125, or $11.25 of the prize pool. (I ran these all through ICM, granted it's more for evalution near the bubble, I've found it still useful in these situations. Someone correct me if its application is in error).

If you bet the pot on the flop and the turn comes his flush and you fold, your equity is .0642 or $5.78. If a nonflush card comes and you push (a pot sized bet at this point is over 50% of your stack), your equity is 0 if you lose and .2046 or $18.41 if you win. Using some probabilities of when the flush cards will hit, etc. your overall equity of this play is .144 or $12.96. That's +$1.71 to make pot sized bets rather than push and have him fold.

If you push and know he's going to call, your equity is .1318 or $11.82.

So the best option between the two is to make pot sized bets. Knowing 100% he has a flush draw is impossible so it leaves room for error in that you misread his hand, you can get away with it with some chips still left in tact.

Another interesting calculation would be what the optimal bet is here. Out of the choices we had (pot sized bet or push) pot sized was the better. But there could be a better fraction of the pot to bet that maximizes your equity. I haven't crunched any numbers so I don't know. It's probably very stack depedent too.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
you make bets that give your opponent incorrect odds to play,

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see how any answer other than this correct.

[Matt Walker]

Sorry maybe I'm missing something here, but how in the world would you ever be able to put a fish on a flush draw on the flop? I can't rember ever betting on the flop where I just knew someone has a flush draw. You should at least consider the fact that maybe this guy isn't on the flush draw. Maybe hes a fish and has a weak ace which he thinks is good. Maybe he has a set. Fish are especially hard to read as sometimes I don't even think they know what they have. Folding w/e the flush draw hits would be a huge leak of chips to these guys.

Because of these considerations and the lack of anyones ability to pin a fish on a flush draw, I think it would be wise to mearly bet bigger when there are two of suit on a flop compared to w/e you would have on a rainbow flop. Betting the pot when there is a possability of draws and smaller on a flop that doesn't look like anyone could be drawing on seems like a good general guidline to me.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
So you willingly take the risk that they will outdraw you so long as you get the right price. I usually do that also, but when the other guy sucks out his flush playing 9-4 of clubs in a raised pot, I sometimes wonder whether I should just have gone all-in on the flop and discouraged them from playing instead of making pot-sized bets each round. But I guess that's poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a Party $11 player calls a raise with 94s, you are crazy if you think he is folding his flush draw to an all-in bet.