Destacking the tight player

[elindauer]

I noticed a ridiculous post recently where someone claimed you could call a raise to $30 from AA with $150 in front of you holding 87. I've seen comments like this in other places, so I thought I'd pull out an essay I once wrote for my NY poker buddies. You can do the mental math to adjust the $15 opening raise to $30, or whatever the standard opening is in your game. Enjoy.



ok, since I've heard this chant so many times about
how profitable it is to play any 2 cards against
someone who has raised preflop with aces, about how
juicy it is when the predictable rookie brings it in
with the big pair, I decided to do a little math.

Let's assume the worst case scenario, that the raiser
is in EP, he raises preflop to $15, and then always
moves in with his whole stack on the flop, no matter
what hits.

ok, what are the odds you will flop 2 pair? Well,
it's about 14:1 against. Of course, two pair versus
aces is hardly a lock hand. The aces have five outs
immediately, and eight more on the turn. twodimes
shows that AA vs J7 on a J72r board, the aces have 25%
pot equity. Obviously, the aces will draw out quite
often.

Additionally, sometimes the raiser will flop a set
while an opponent will flop 2 pair and have the guy
drawing dead. Oops.

So, how big does the guy's stack have to be so that
it's profitable to play to outflop the aces in this
way?

I calculate that the guy must have $450 in front of
him to make the play break even for the J7. You see,
those $15 misses add up fast. Are the stacks this deep in your game?

Note also that I have assumed a phenomenally naive
strategy for the player with the big pair. He never
picks off any bluffs, and he always gets his whole
stack in every time his opponents outflop him. Now, I
find it hard to believe that this player really exists
and is playing regularly in your game. If the
guy wises up and notices, oh look, every time these
guys move in on me they have me beaten. Maybe I
should fold sometimes, he will make it even harder on
the random card player. If he folds 1 time in 5,
he'll have to have $520 in front of him for the J7 to
break even. 2 times in 5, he'll have to have $680 in
front of him. (interesting side note that a player
that never bluffs will make money, assuming he is ever
called. hint hint to you lags out there.)


Of course, if you never bluff, most players will
notice this and start folding. What percentage of the
time would the J7 have to be caught bluffing so that
he could never break even calling the preflop raise?

Let's say the J7 bluffs at gutshot boards like KT8, so
he even has some chance at winning if he's called by
the overpair. ok, a little more math and we see...

if the guy always gets called by the overpair, and he
bluffs at 6% of the flops he misses, there is no stack
size against which it is profitable to play this way.
Put another way, if his flop play goes:

fold fold fold fold bluff fold fold fold fold fold
fold fold fold fold 2pair-allin

he is losing money. In many games, the players aren't even this pationt. It's more like:

fold fold bluff fold fold fold fold fold fold bluff
fold fold fold fold 2pair-allin

am I right? In this spot, the "noob" calling down
with the aces is making a killing. (how much? a lot.
the all-in hands are actually profitable for the aces
here, so the bigger the stacks, the better he does.
$500 stacks? noob makes $42 / hand!)

So, in conclusion, it's true that a tough player with
the patience to bluff at only about one out of every
30 flops he sees can call the $15 with J7 and turn a
small profit against a highly predictable player
provided the stacks are very deep (and there is no
reraise behind him... yikes). But in a typical game
where players bluff much at all, even a rather idiotic
player can take a naive strategy and play AA for a
raise profitably against two random cards, even with
fairly deep stacks. Is this really so shocking? I
don't think so. You see, AA is really a very good
hand.


-Eric



conclusion: when you're looking for hands to take down aces, pairs are the bomb. They make big hands relatively often, and the aces are drawing much thinner than against two pair. Suited connector type hands aren't that much more valuable than two random cards if the big pair will bet enough on the flop to blow out your draw. If you do play these hands and you expect your opponent to show down naked aces, make sure you don't bluff too much!

Good luck.
Eric