Temp's K5 All-in Push

[Rushmore]

In the Foxwoods WPT event aired this week, this hand gave me some trouble:

Temp's K5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] vs. Tuan's 9T, flop comes AKQ, with two spades.

Tuan makes a correct continuation bet at a scary A-high flop with a hand that has only idiot-end/no implied odds gutshot potential. Fair enough. (I suppose he could have check-raise bluffed at it, but that's another story.)

Now Temp reads Tuan for weak, and raises ALL-IN. This seems like a clear mistake to me.

Is Tuan laying down an ace? No. Is he calling without an ace or better? No. Is the likelihood of Tuan holding and folding a better king great enough to factor in heavily? No. Is the likelihood of him being on a flush draw plus the likelihood of having a gutshot and spiking enough to sufficiently reduce the value of Temp's hand enough to want to run a weak draw off right now, eliminating the chance of Tuan bluffing off more chips when a blank hits the turn?

I don't think so.

I think my point is that if this play is the one you choose, wouldn't you be better off flat calling and then pushing on the turn?

Anyway, anyone else agree that the all-in raise on the flop was a bad one? My take on it is that it's great to make a good read, but seems like a huge waste of time if you don't have a better plan than Temp did.

I suppose that ultimately, what I'm wondering is whether Temp could possibly have been correct in assuming that his need to protect his hand outweighed the value of the chips that Tuan would likely put in on the turn. Did Temp give up significant EV?

[SossMan]

it probably depends on the stack sizes. If it was a huge overbet, then it's probably not very good. If, however, any turn action would commit one of the stacks, then he's probably better having the FE vs. gutshot/smaller pair hands on the flop v. the extra chips he wins on the turn.

[MLG]

I agree about the specific hand in question. However, from an overall strategy standpoint when you are heads-up with relatively deep stacks there are so many metagame considerations. For example, maybe Temp's gameplane was to frusterate Tuan into making a bad frusteration call down the line when Temp picks up a big hand. If that's the case then picking a bunch of spots where you are sure your ahead and pushing isnt an awful play although it gives up some EV at the time. Its hard to examine heads-up hands in a vacuum.

[Temp Hutter]

I just found out last night along with everyone else what Tuan was holding on that particular hand. After I checked and he bet - my read on him (based on my experience with him over the last couple of days) was that he was holding a K or Q, but not an A. I did not put him on a draw. First, I had a lousy kicker with my K. Second, Tuan is catching cards like he has a horseshoe up his butt. I am perfectly happy with picking up the pot right there. He may fold a better K. I also may be ahead and Tuan calls me with the worst hand (which of course would mean that he would catch the inside straight and beat me.)

Truth be told, my instincts had worked for me to this point so I was going to go with my read. Of course had I known what two cards Tuan actually held then maybe I play it differently. It is defintely interesting to see the hole cards finally.

[Rushmore]

Hard to argue with your rationale, especially when looking at the wider view.

Congratulations on a great score; you made some serious plays, and definitely got a few tough breaks.

[SossMan]

Temp,
If you think he has a K or Q, then it's all the more reason to wait until the turn to push. What does pushing the flop do that pushing the turn wouldn't? I suppose that you have some more folding equity on the flop depending on how much he fires out on the turn (assuming he has a bigger king) and that if he's behind, you give him one more card to hit what is likely less than 5 outs. The fact that he was getting lucky should have had no impact on your decision, of course.

A note on your reads, too. How can you narrow his holdings to K or Q, but not an ace (or two pair or set or JT, i presume)? You may have hoped that he had K or Q, but that's all it was.
I'm not saying it was a bad play, because I don't know the stack sizes, but if the stacks were very large at all, I'm not a big fan of the push.
As MLG said, though, there likely are some very heavy metagame considerations when heads up. So much of heads up is feel, flow, how the previous couple of hands have gone, how much each of you have been raising your button, your BB, etc...obviously, all of this is darn near impossible to tell from the limited number of hands we get shown.

Congrats on your nice showing and welcome to the boards.

-SossMan

[Temp Hutter]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he has a K or Q, then it's all the more reason to wait until the turn to push. What does pushing the flop do that pushing the turn wouldn't?

[/ QUOTE ]

He had position on me. I checked raised. If I just call and then check the turn he may check behind me and get to see the river for free. There were plenty of chips already in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
How can you narrow his holdings to K or Q, but not an ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I have been playing with him for several hours over the course of a few days. He would not make that play with top pair IMO. My reads had gotten me this far.

[ QUOTE ]
You may have hoped that he had K or Q, but that's all it was

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless someone has x-ray vision, a read is just a guess. If you pay attention it can be an educated guess. Did you like my 77 guess earlier? I didn't know until last night how close I was.

It was a fun experience. I hope to do it again some day.

Temp

[GtrHtr]

I thought your read, as it was broadcast on the show, was amazing and dead on. He was getting some of the luckiest boards I have ever seen and made me ponder what kind of chop might have been agreed to. Was there a chop?

Your play and demeanor were inspiring to a wannabe like me. Congratulations on your finish and payday.

[SossMan]

ahhh...i didn't realize that he had position and you checkraised the flop. That does change it a bit.
Still, the stack sizes are really the determining factor in the play...do you happen to remember how much of an overbet the all in was?

[ QUOTE ]
He would not make that play with top pair IMO. My reads had gotten me this far.


[/ QUOTE ]

He's not betting top pair there? The telecast looked like he was betting darn near everything on the flop, so wouldn't a check behind look pretty obvious if he only checked behind his good hands?
Maybe that's what you are referring to.

[Temp Hutter]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, the stack sizes are really the determining factor in the play...do you happen to remember how much of an overbet the all in was?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't recall the exact chip stacks. I believe this hand occurred when I was trying to re-gain the chip lead. I think Tuan had me covered by a few hundred thousand going into this hand. I believe he bet 700K(?) and then I moved in for another 1.5M or so.
[ QUOTE ]
He's not betting top pair there? The telecast looked like he was betting darn near everything on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]
Tuan was very aggressive, but based on what I had seen I did not think he would bet the amount he bet with top pair. I think he would have checked or bet a smaller amount.

Anyway, my read was wrong in that he did not have a K or Q, but my read was correct that he did not have an A.