Changing Plans

oscark · #1 04-13-2005, 03:01 PM

UTG is a TAG and we play together a fair amount. Just chose to change it up preflop, really looking for postflop comments.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 5 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.66 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.83 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.83 BB

stoxtrader · #2 04-13-2005, 03:16 PM

A fold on the turn, OR a call on the river are both better lines in my opinion.

philnewall · #3 04-13-2005, 03:28 PM

Calling the turn doesnt make sense if you're folding the river.

oscark · #4 04-13-2005, 03:58 PM

Ok, I respect both of you guys, so why was this thinking wrong:

I thought he is autobetting the flop and turn heads up on a reasonably draw heavy board. However, I didn't think he would bet the river without an ace. I thought I was more sure than 1 in 7...maybe I am wrong?

ggbman · #5 04-13-2005, 04:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I respect both of you guys, so why was this thinking wrong:

I thought he is autobetting the flop and turn heads up on a reasonably draw heavy board. However, I didn't think he would bet the river without an ace. I thought I was more sure than 1 in 7...maybe I am wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the flop is a better way to find out if he is drawing.

oscark · #6 04-13-2005, 04:05 PM

I was not implying he was drawing. And I think raising the flop is bad.

Klepton · #7 04-13-2005, 08:56 PM

raising the flop here would see if he is drawing or not, he could be betting any PP, KJ, KQ,

he might even fold [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Nate tha' Great · #8 04-13-2005, 09:22 PM

I don't like the river fold. Depending on what I think of you, and how much attention I'm paying, I'm value betting some rivers with a worse hand and perhaps bluffing at others if I have something like 99 that can't really win a showdown. These whole "he's a TAG and he knows that I'm a TAG and he knows that I know that he's a TAG" sort of folds will just get you into trouble IMO, especially since the dude is probably multitabling and you've done utterly nothing to define his hand strength.

Nate tha' Great · #9 04-13-2005, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the turn doesnt make sense if you're folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree that he should call the river, I don't know that is is necessarily true. He does have some additional outs on the turn with the gutshot and there's definitely some possibility of his getting a free showdown: if he gets a free showdown from a worse hand just 10% of the time, that's worth 4 or 5 outs. IMO folding on the turn would be a bigger mistake than the way that hero played it.

stoxtrader · #10 04-13-2005, 09:31 PM

explain this part if you don't mind:

[ QUOTE ]
if he gets a free showdown from a worse hand just 10% of the time, that's worth 4 or 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

specifically how you assign a value to this. it seems to me you have valued a 10% shot at a free showdown rather high. but i am definitely not certain of that.