Is It Ever Worth Fighting For Small Pots?

gaming_mouse · #1 04-13-2005, 03:41 AM

Just sat down. No reads. But this is a common enough situation.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 6 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

What's Hero's plan?

private joker · #2 04-13-2005, 03:45 AM

Check-fold the flop. If it checks through, sometimes I bet the turn.

And aren't you supposed to be at the Bike?

gaming_mouse · #3 04-13-2005, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check-fold the flop. If it checks through, sometimes I bet the turn.

And aren't you supposed to be at the Bike?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. That's what I did and it's my standard line. Just checking....

I left the Bike around 11. The games were dissapointingly unjuicy. Not tough, but no better than the Hustler. The only thing to recommend them was the low rake. I've decided I'm not really a fan of The Bike's ambience. Indeed, I might even say I am more partial to The Normandie [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

private joker · #4 04-13-2005, 04:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I left the Bike around 11. The games were dissapointingly unjuicy. Not tough, but no better than the Hustler. The only thing to recommend them was the low rake. I've decided I'm not really a fan of The Bike's ambience. Indeed, I might even say I am more partial to The Normandie [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I think the Bike is 1,000x better than Commerce. Hustler does have a nicer, more intimate feel to it (fewer people, smaller building, better chips, more room, better food). Let's not even talk about Normandie. But the Bike 6/12 is still my favorite game in town. I'm never not clobbering it. Plus, the floormen are great and attentive, and they spread more tables than Hustler.

jason_t · #5 04-13-2005, 04:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

And aren't you supposed to be at the Bike?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've decided I'm not really a fan of The Bike's ambience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strange, I've used the exact same words about the Commerce.

me454555 · #6 04-13-2005, 04:29 AM

I bet this every time for the following reasons

1) From a purely mathatmatical standpoint, you only have to be right less than 30% of the time

2) This board is pretty scary if your opponent didn't hit it

3) You have a gutshot just incase you are behind, and I also think that your K is probobly good too

4) What range of hands is your opponent limping with in ep? If he had an ace, he'd most likely raise. How many playable hands that he does't raise pf contain a Q or T? I know there are a few but then compare that the the number of hands that he would limp with that don't contain and A Q or T. This puts you in a very advantagous postion for your bet to win the pot right there.

5) B/c you don't want to become too predictable and various other metagame advantages

gaming_mouse · #7 04-13-2005, 04:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's not even talk about Normandie.

[/ QUOTE ]

As long softness of game is our leading criteria, I think we should. Because let's face it, if you remove that, Hustler pretty much crushes all competition. As a place to just sit and be, it is just so much nicer than any other cardroom in LA. Of course, the 6/12 rake sucks....

jason_t · #8 04-13-2005, 04:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check-fold the flop. If it checks through, sometimes I bet the turn.

And aren't you supposed to be at the Bike?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that your original avatar? At least, it's the first one I ever saw you with.

oreogod · #9 04-13-2005, 04:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this every time for the following reasons

1) From a purely mathatmatical standpoint, you only have to be right less than 30% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay bare with me, is this because ur risking 1 bet to win 2.33 right?

=u only need to have it work 30.3 percent

that right?

jason_t · #10 04-13-2005, 05:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet this every time for the following reasons

1) From a purely mathatmatical standpoint, you only have to be right less than 30% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay bare with me, is this because ur risking 1 bet to win 2.33 right?

=u only need to have it work 30.3 percent

that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say that x is the probability that he folds to your flop bet and then 1-x is the probability that he calls your flop bet. For the bet on the flop to break even we need

2.33 * x - 1 * (1 - x) = 0.

That is,

3.33 * x = 1

so that

x = 1/3.33.

Since 1/3.33 = .30 we need the bet to succeed at least 30% of the time to break even.

Now, sometimes when our flop bet is called we will improve to the nut straight. If he did call our flop bet, it's fairly unlikely that he too has a K as he can't profitably call a flop bet with a gutshot. So in this case, we win the whole pot. He also can't profitably call our flop bet with a flush draw, so let's say that all four Js are clean. Hence 4/47 of the time we improve to a winner. It's hard to say how many bets we might collect in this case with four to a straight on the board, but in the worst case we pick up the pot on the turn. Then we need

2.33 * x - 1 * (43/47) * (1-x) + 3.33 * (4/47) * (1-x) = 0

and solving this for x leads to x = .2132 so we actually only need to succeed 21% of the time.