Too passive in this spot?

einbert · #1 04-12-2005, 03:37 PM

Villian is relatively new but seems decently aggressive.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, planning to call any river or bet if checked to.

robinsons · #2 04-12-2005, 03:49 PM

I'm still a new player so take this with a grain of salt, but seems a sensible spot to try to induce a bluff?
if you're ahead he is mostly likely drawing to few outs, and the reverse is also true.
if you bet the turn and he checkraises (which an agressive player may do with something like KQ?) this puts you in a bad spot absent any other reads?

Rubeskies · #3 04-12-2005, 03:50 PM

repeat after me... Must Bet Turn

einbert · #4 04-12-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
repeat after me... Must Bet Turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay...but aren't his most likely hands against me either drawing dead or drawing to five outs at most?

BUT if he has me beat with a better kicker I have at least 9 outs to come back, so folding to a checkraise sucks.

Can you give some explanation please? Thanks ^^.

Rubeskies · #5 04-12-2005, 04:00 PM

When he bets out on the flop like that (which I'll often raise) he probably has a weak holding, something like a K or a 7, maybe a low pocket pair and wants to scare you and see if you'll fold. Now that he's shown weakness when he checks the turn, he'll often call down with anything reasonable. But you don't profit from this unless you bet. Also, if he has outs, you must protect your hand and force him to pay to see the river. Some opponents will pay a bet here drawing dead but check/fold on the river when they miss so you want to get your value bet in now.

Without some sort of read here, I think checking the turn is pretty bad.

Rubeskies · #6 04-12-2005, 04:04 PM

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BUT if he has me beat with a better kicker I have at least 9 outs to come back, so folding to a checkraise sucks.

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9 outs? How? I count 3, maybe some to tie depending on his kicker.

einbert · #7 04-12-2005, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BUT if he has me beat with a better kicker I have at least 9 outs to come back, so folding to a checkraise sucks.

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9 outs? How? I count 3, maybe some to tie depending on his kicker.

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I was including tie outs, yeah.

I think a big consideration is how often a player at this level with call with a gutshot here (JT, JQ, QT--likely holdings at this point) and how many will fold. Also whether they will bet the river with these hands if they miss.

"Protecting my hand" isn't really a consideration in this size of pot since he can't really have a strong draw, imo. I would rather him get a free shot at his 5-outer or 4-outer if he will fold these to a bet but often bet the river on a bluff when he misses.

I think that he will often incorrectly call with four or five outs though, and hardly ever checkraise. I'm leaning more towards betting against an unknown and checking against a thinking player in this spot.

Rubeskies · #8 04-12-2005, 04:27 PM

First, the only way you have 9 tie outs is if he holds specifically A5, anything else and you only have 3 tie outs with the K.

Second, here are the possible scenarios that could happen

A.) He has a gutshot and folds correctly to your turn bet. You made the right decision because you win the pot and he doesn't draw incorrectly. You did not give him infinite odds to draw. (You win no more bets, but do win the pot.)

B.) He has a gutshot and calls incorrectly on the turn and folds the river when he misses. (You win one extra bet and the pot.)

C.) He has a gutshot, calls the turn, picks up a pair on the river and calls your river bet. (You win two bets and the pot)

D.) You bet he calls incorrectly, hits his longshot draw. (You lose 2-3 bets)

E.) He has a pair and calls you on the turn and river incorrectly if he knew what you had. (You gain 2 bets)

F.) He has a pair and calls the turn but folds the river unimproved. (You win 1 bet)

G.) He has nothing but is willing to call a turn bet to see the river card and attempt to pick something up to call your bluff down. He misses and folds river. (You win 1 bet)

H.) Same as G but hits and calls river. (You gain 2 bets.)

I.) He has a pair, hits his draw. (you lose 2-3 bets) but you didn't give him infinite odds to draw.

And then there are the scenarios where you check.

A.) You check, he misses his gutshot and bluffs at you. (You gain one bet).

B.) You check, he misses his draw and check/folds the river. (You gain no new bets while losing a chance to gain one on the turn.)

C.) You check he hits his free draw (you lose 1-2 bets).

I think the first few scenarios are much more likely and much more profitable than the last set.

You see, they can't call incorrectly if you don't bet. You don't have a read saying they are good players so you have to allow them to make mistakes.

cjx · #9 04-12-2005, 04:33 PM

Well, there are lots of other possibilities, but the specific important ones:
Hero is behind, bets and is checkraised. Hero calls down and loses 2 more BB. Hero calls down splits, hits miracle.
Hero bets, villain checkraises and hero folds.

cjx

Edit: Though I agree with your action. Bet the turn villain will call down very often with a worse pair or will call and fold the river.

Rubeskies · #10 04-12-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, there are lots of other possibilities, but the specific important ones:
Hero is behind, bets and is checkraised. Hero calls down and loses 2 more BB. Hero calls down splits, hits miracle.
Hero bets, villain checkraises and hero folds.

cjx

Edit: Though I agree with your action. Bet the turn villain will call down very often with a worse pair or will call and fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but along those lines there is also:

Hero bets, is check/raised and calls down with the better hand, netting 2-3 bets depending on river action.