Bellagio 15-30: Will a worse hand call my river bet?

Dynasty · #1 10-30-2002, 02:10 AM

The Mirage has been a bit slow lately so I decided to play at the Bellagio instead.

My main opponent in this hand, the Big Blind, fancies himself an expert poker player. I know this because he's been talking the talk at the table ever since he sat down. He even changed seats to get on the immediate left of a LAG woman and said "The game is gonna change now" implying he was going to 3-bet her a lot and take control of the table. Of course, that woman got multiple bets out of him on a T,3,3,T,x when she had a Ten and the "expert" had a presumed big pair.

Anyway, he's been playing very aggressively and I've seen him bet a few ragged/paired flops in unraised pots.

The hand:

A new player has posted in the cutoff putting extra money in the pot. It's folded to me in MP. I've got 5s5d and limp. It's folded to the cutoff who checks his option. The button calls. Small Blind calls for $5 more. The Big Blind checks his option.

The flop is: Ts,Th,4s

Small Blind checks. Big Blind bets. As I said above, he's bet a few of these ragged/paired flops. I call. Cutoff calls. Button calls. Small Blind folds. Four players see the turn with 4.5 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: Ts,Th,4s,2c

Big Blind bets. I call again. Cutoff and Button fold. Heads-up to the river

The river is: Ts,Th,4s,2c,8d

Big Blind checks.

I think "Will a worse hand call my river bet?" I come up with my answer and bet.

#2 10-30-2002, 02:13 AM

Jim Brier · #3 10-30-2002, 02:23 AM

Yes, a worse hand will call your river bet. If the guy had trip tens he would not be checking the river. But he will call if has a four or just overcards since you could be on a busted flush draw. You might lose to a bigger pocket pair, but I would bet any way.

Mason Malmuth · #4 10-30-2002, 02:26 AM

You probably have a value bet. However, your opponent's check does indicate that he's hoping to have enough to win in a showdown. With a weaker hand he might have made a desperation bluff on the river. So there is a good chance that he also holds a pair in his hand, one that might be bigger than yours. But you may still want to bet, even if you knew this to be the case, since he now might fold. Sometimes these self-thinking experts can make lay downs when they shouldn't.

So if that's the case, you have even more reason to bet. You are in a spot where a weaker hand might call, and a better hand might fold. I bet you never thought about it this way.

However, I'm not so sure I like your turn call. With two players behind you who each called the flop bet, the chances of a ten being out have gone up.

MM

mike l. · #5 10-30-2002, 02:38 AM

this hand is interesting because first of all you give a detailed explanation of your opponent.

but even more interesting is it brings up the not-so-subtle distinction between "what are the chances i have the best hand on the river?" and "what are the chances a worse hand will call my bet on the river?"

i think that in this case the chances your hand is good are very strong. however when you factor in all the hands he may be giving up with (check-fold), and then a few that he's looking to checkraise with or check-call with that are better than yours. (and keep in mind if he truly is a very good player, unlikely as it sounds from what youve told us, he may be trying to induce a bet from you with a worse hand or busted draw) this is in fact a thin value bet to be sure.

so my answer is it's close, but i think you should check behind in this particular case.

PokerPrince · #6 10-30-2002, 02:51 AM

If you played the hand more aggressively from the preflop on you would have a much better idea of where you were at. In this case it's a bet.

PokerPrince

skp · #7 10-30-2002, 02:57 AM

A couple of missing commas which I am sure a prominent poster elsewhere has noted down in his diary but otherwise, this post and its concepts are unassailable. Great post!

#8 10-30-2002, 03:27 AM

I think a worse hand will likely call you here, he could have a 4, or possibly a big busted flush draw that he might payoff with here. I think that i would have raised the flop bet though.

brad · #9 10-30-2002, 06:46 AM

i was thinking raise the flop too. what does everybody else think? i guess a call should make it heads up as well as a raise but what are the odds bettor has nothing (just betting paired board) and will fold?

Clarkmeister · #10 10-30-2002, 01:08 PM

I really detest the fact that you didn't raise the flop or the turn. The chances that you have the best hand on the flop are huge but you are obviously vulnerable. Other than a 5 or a 10, that is a dream turn card for you. Pick your street, but you've got to raise in here somewhere.