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#1
04-11-2005, 10:43 PM
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Pot odds drill
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls. Preflop seemed like an easy limp. Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls. 9-1 on the flop with 2 overs and a backdoor straight draw. I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right? Turn: (5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls. On the turn I'm getting 6-1 with at least a 7 out draw. 1 BB worth of implied odds on the pair outs and 1.5 BB implied odds on the straight. Look okay? River: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls. Is the river call okay? I figure it's unlikely that he has me beat, but if he does, I'll lose 2 if I raise. If I raise, he'll release sometimes and call sometimes with Ace high. Who votes raise? Thanks for the input. Krishan 
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#3
04-12-2005, 08:28 AM
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Re: Pot odds drill
Nice catch, I forgot the backdoor flush.
Krishan
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#4
04-12-2005, 06:05 AM
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Re: Pot odds drill
[ QUOTE ]
I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right? [/ QUOTE ] 4 outs = 7-to-1? I don't get it...
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#7
04-12-2005, 06:28 AM
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Re: Pot odds drill
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop seemed like an easy limp. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose if your raise button is broken this is a good limp. Sort of kidding. I make this limp quite a bit and I always feel very feeble doing so. I much prefer raising or folding preflop whatever I've got. JTs is one of those hands I just don't believe in: everyone tells me it's a good hand, and I do win with it, but I just don't like it very much; so much so that I feebly call in situations like this. I would imagine raising is better. [ QUOTE ] 9-1 on the flop with 2 overs and a backdoor straight draw. I'm giving myself 3.5 outs for the overcards and .5 for the backdoor straight. I need about 7-1 so I'm good closing the action right? [/ QUOTE ] No. Four outs = 11-1. Fold. [ QUOTE ] On the turn I'm getting 6-1 with at least a 7 out draw. 1 BB worth of implied odds on the pair outs and 1.5 BB implied odds on the straight. Look okay? [/ QUOTE ] You could of course be drawing dead, but it's unlikely. However I think your pair outs could be in trouble a lot of the time here: SB raised preflop and has bet flop and turn into two players who limped, when the board is peppered with limpy-looking cards. An overpair is not at all unlikely in my opinion. I'd discount your pair outs more than 50% I think, but I think the straight outs are good. Let's call it six outs, getting 6-1, with at least 1BB of implied odds for the straight cards. This is very close but I think you can justify a call. However, there's a mathematical point to make about implied odds with tainted outs. The point is: ignore them. Why? Suppose you have e.g. six pair outs that you expect are good about 50% of the time, so you count them as three outs. Add in the other outs you may have and calculate yout pot odds blah blah blah... If this means that you call the turn, then when you hit one of these six cards, you'll put money in on the river too. You cannot count this money as part of your "implied odds" because you only win the pot 50% of the time in this situation, so these river bets are breakeven for you if you're heads-up. Since all we're doing in real life is making estimates, I think the most accurate thing to do is to ignore all implied odds when working with tainted outs. [ QUOTE ] Is the river call okay? [/ QUOTE ] I think so. Guy.
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#9
04-12-2005, 08:30 AM
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Re: Pot odds drill
[ QUOTE ]
Why? Suppose you have e.g. six pair outs that you expect are good about 50% of the time, so you count them as three outs. Add in the other outs you may have and calculate yout pot odds blah blah blah... If this means that you call the turn, then when you hit one of these six cards, you'll put money in on the river too. You cannot count this money as part of your "implied odds" because you only win the pot 50% of the time in this situation, so these river bets are breakeven for you if you're heads-up. [/ QUOTE ] Brilliant stuff Guy. It makes a lot of sense intuitively. One question though, is the loss of implied odds of our tainted outs the reason you don't like the flop call getting 9-1 right? Krishan
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#10
04-12-2005, 09:20 AM
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Re: Pot odds drill
[ QUOTE ]
Brilliant stuff Guy. It makes a lot of sense intuitively. One question though, is the loss of implied odds of our tainted outs the reason you don't like the flop call getting 9-1 right? [/ QUOTE ] Glad you liked it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] We both missed the backdoor flush draw, which if we count it as one out brings you up to 5 outs on the flop. I don't mind factoring in some implied odds for the backdoor straight and flush draws, but they're very tiny draws, so you can ignore their implied odds because they come in so rarely; and it's wrong to use implied odds for the tainted pair draws as I said. So you've got nothing more than your pot odds of 9-1 to work with. 9-1, five outs, very very close between calling and folding. Folding has the advantage of reducing variance at no (or negligible) EV cost, so I think a fold is best here. Guy.
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