KK - capped preflop - Ace on flop

J.DP · #1 04-11-2005, 03:52 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, 2 folds, BB caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero???

I should raise this right? and fold to a 3 bet?

Thanks.

mannika · #2 04-11-2005, 04:19 PM

Without reads, it is extremely hard to argue one way or another. If either of the villains are decent, I'm folding this for sure. To put it another way, are you really willing to call down to the river and invest at least 2.5 BB in a situation where you probably only win if you spike your third king or if you're up against QQ and JJ?

Against half-decent players, you pretty well are guaranteed to only have 2 outs here (or drawing to runner-runner kings)

Edit: HEFAP has some discussion on this topic of having overcards flop when you've shown strength preflop on p.125 and p.133

Pokey · #3 04-11-2005, 04:20 PM

I'm thinking you're dead, one way or another.

BEST case scenario, one of them has a diamond draw and the other has a high pocket pair that's not an ace. In that case, you're going to lose to any diamond or the made set on the turn or river. Call it 11 outs for your opponents, twice, and you're winning just under half the time.

Best case scenario.

Worst case scenario, just one of them needs an ace and you're dogmeat, drawing to two outs or even drawing dead to pocket aces. Oh, and remember that the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] isn't a safe improvement for you, either, so you could literally be drawing to one out.

Who is MP2? Who is BB? A bit of a read would be marvellously helpful in analysis.

BB, facing a reraise preflop, capped it and then bet out on the flop. A maniac might do that with anything, but that screams "ACE" to me, and probably a good ace -- possibly even AK (how's that for scary?).

MP2 just raised first in preflop but called two more, and then also called a preflop raise. He might have a diamond draw, but which one? For him to play the preflop the way he did with only a diamond draw, you'd have to say he's got at least a good one -- that would be Kx[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Otherwise, he might be playing a different suited ace, but that ace just hit on the flop.

In general, I've come to the conclusion that a flopped ace after big preflop aggression, combined with aggression on the flop, spells trouble for me.

Personally, I'd fold this one -- I think you're dead-to-rights far too often to make calling (or raising) worthwhile here.

But heck, what do I know? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

ChromePony · #4 04-11-2005, 05:34 PM

I would generally let this one go, with all that pf action and 2 in on the flop already I'd say the odds of an A out there are pretty good, especially since it was raised by both other players pf. When your ahead you can still lose and probably arent going to make up for the times when you're drawing to 2 outs.

tizim · #5 04-11-2005, 07:44 PM

Reads would definitely help here. If BB is aggressive at all, and MP2 is terrible, I would raise the flop, then either check the turn hoping to induce a bluff, or bet the turn and take a free showdown.

If BB is passive and MP2 is decent, I'd fold.

J.DP · #6 04-12-2005, 12:07 PM

Thanks for the responses.

Sorry about the lack of reads, since this was my first hand I did not have GameTime+ loaded for that table.

I folded. But the reasons I questioned the fold are that BB would probably bet the flop with JJ or QQ and MP2 just calling suggests he does not have an Ace.

If MP2 doesn't have an Ace then KK is ahead here often enough to continue.

AA - 3 combos
QQ - 6 combos
JJ - 6 combos
AK - 6 combos

So I'd be ahead here 12/21 times. However the possibility of BB calling the flop with AT-AQ probably swings this closer to a fold.

After some more thought I disagree with raising here but I think that calling down and betting if checked to has merit. I think this is fairly close without reads.

Anyway, BB ended up taking this one down at showdown with JJ against MP2's 99. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

TheDelChop · #7 04-12-2005, 01:18 PM

I think raising and folding to a 3-bet is a much better line. At least put some pressure on the guy.

If he calls the raise and checks to you I would venture to say you have the best hand. If he calls your turn bet then take a free showdown.

At least do something to try and win this fairly large pot.

J.DP · #8 04-12-2005, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising and folding to a 3-bet is a much better line. At least put some pressure on the guy.

If he calls the raise and checks to you I would venture to say you have the best hand. If he calls your turn bet then take a free showdown.

At least do something to try and win this fairly large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer calling to raising here.

This is a way ahead/way behind situation. By raising I make BB and MP2 more likely to fold their worst hands and I'll get 3 bet by any better hands.

Calling down and betting if checked to makes it more likely BB will see showdown with JJ,QQ etc.

The pot is fairly large but how often do you think I'm going to get outdrawn by a worse hand here? The diamond draw is the only thing I have to worry about.

Todd · #9 04-12-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, 2 folds, BB caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero???

I should raise this right? and fold to a 3 bet?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just calling has the risk of allowing a wk ace to ride along, and beat you. If there is any chance that one of your opponents will lay down Ax then you should raise and exploit that. With the preflop raising, either of them could have Axs and missed their flush draw.

If you are reraised, and you dont know anything about your opponents, then flip a coin to decide whether to fold.

T

J.DP · #10 04-12-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, 2 folds, BB caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero???

I should raise this right? and fold to a 3 bet?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just calling has the risk of allowing a wk ace to ride along, and beat you. If there is any chance that one of your opponents will lay down Ax then you should raise and exploit that. With the preflop raising, either of them could have Axs and missed their flush draw.

If you are reraised, and you dont know anything about your opponents, then flip a coin to decide whether to fold.

T

[/ QUOTE ]

An average Party 3/6 player is hardly ever folding an Ace here.

Also it's a pretty easy fold if I raise the flop and am 3 bet. That means AA or AK just about every time.