River decision- bet or check-raise?

[BellyBuster7]

It seems so rare that I get to suckout on someone on the river, that when it happens, I'm not sure what the proper play is.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (10.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ???

CO seems like a pretty solid player- I definitely had him noted as the only player on this particular table that I thought was playing solid poker.

By betting out here, I'm announcing I have AK- I don't think CO will raise, and I may lose one or both players. By checking and hoping CO will continue to bet so I can CR, I run the risk of having my nut hand get checked through.

To bet, or try for the check-raise, that is the question.

[teajay]

Bet. It would be a shame if it got checked through.

You say CO is someone you think of as a reasonably solid player. To me this sais that he is likely to call a single bet on the end closing the action in this fairly big pot.

Not to mention, MP1 seems to like his hand enough to stick around for the whole thing, so he's probably calling.

Furthermore, if you go for the check raise you're going to put MP1 in a position where he may have to cold call two (assuming he doesn't bet himself) which he may not do, so in the end the two bets from CO from the CR is the same as two calls from MP1 and CO.

Cheers,
Travis

[GrunchCan]

Bet. There's too much chance that the villan here won't bet. He may have been betting a now-busted flush draw, something like AJ which he may give up on now, or might just be scared of the straight draw. I'd want to get paid for my draw for sure, so I'd bet ensuring at least 1 call, rather than risking none.

By the way, I'm of the opinion that polls aren't a good way of getting strategy advice. You really need to understand the why, not just the what. Plus, don't you want to know whose advice you are accepting?

[davelin]

Bet, I don't even think this is close.

[unimproved]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, I don't even think this is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nor me. If you bet, the bad player in the middle will probably call, as will CO. If you check, he will probably check his AJ behind after being called in both spots following the turn Q. If he is a thinking player, he may also realise that that river card has just completed the nut straight for what is far and away your most plausible holding. Checkraising will doubtless fold out MP1 and screams strength to CO, who is far more likely to now find a fold (netting you one big bet) than if you had just bet (gaining you two).

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

...

CO seems like a pretty solid player- I definitely had him noted as the only player on this particular table that I thought was playing solid poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not after that cold-call. Bet the river.

[Ringo_Mojo]

I say bet, for two reasons. The pot is large enough that they would probably be correct to call even with the possibility of you having AK. Also as has been pointed out in other threads, CO doesn't know you've got the nuts, he'll probably keep raising, letting you 3-bet with the best hand.

[BellyBuster7]

Does anyone who voted 'check-raise' care to comment?