Overbet Blues

[ML4L]

Hey all,

It's probably just bad luck, but recently, I've overbet all-in with quite a few monsters and not gotten paid off. So, I thought I would post some of the hands and see whether or not people thought these were good spots to overbet. All of these are from memory, so forgive me if the details aren't perfect (although I remember all of the important stuff). All hands are Stars 5/10.

Hand 1: Un-notable regular ($1000) opens to $40 from MP. All fold to me ($1000) in the BB, and I call with black 55. Flop comes:

7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I lead for $75, MP calls. Turn comes:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead for $140, MP calls. River comes:

4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I move all-in for $800.

Hand 2: Good regular ($1500) opens UTG to $40. Folded to me in the CO, and I ($1100) call with black 66. BB calls as well. Flop comes:

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG leads for $60, I call, BB folds. Turn comes:

T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG leads for $90, I call. River comes:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG leads for $120, I move all-in for $900.

Hand 3: Folded to button ($800; same good player from Hand 2; this is about a week later), who raises to $40. I ($1000)call in the SB with red 77. BB folds. Flop comes:

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, BB bets $80, I check-raise all-in.


There are a couple more, but now that I think about them, the pot was already pretty big, so my all-in wasn't really an overbet. If I think of any more good ones, I might tack them onto the thread (I probably would get better responses if these were separate, but oh well...).

Thanks in advance.

ML4L

[bogey]

Hand 1: no good, i dont see anything calling here that you beat

Hand 2: Good.

Hand 3: Also good, used sparingly and do once in a while with the flush draw.

[Jason Strasser]

Mike,

Hand 1: I'm on the fence. The thing going for you is that there are quite a few missed draws on the river, and if you have been playing aggressive and your opponent thinks you are capable of firing three bullets here with a draw that becomes busted, then its ok. But I feel like you don't get those crazy calls (that I tend to get) because your play is much more solid and non-monkey-tiltish.

In general though, most opponents will not look you up here... If he is an unnotable regular, I definitely vote for a value bet around $300 or so on the river.

Hand 2: Bueno. I like it. If he has a boat he must pay-off obviously. If he has AA or AK I'm not sure what he'll do, that has a lot to do with your table image and such.

Hand 3: I like.

But here's the thing about these three hands--they have to be part of a bigger equation. Getting paid off with overbets are about lots of things. Your opponent must think you are capable of big bluffs. This is accomplished, preferably, by getting caught. There is absolutely nothing like it (for your image) when you get caught bluffing. I think against a few certain regulars in that game I've made more money overall by losing a stack here and there with my bluff.

So looking at these individual hands may be helpful... But getting paid off on these bets comes down to a lot more than the mechanics of individual hands.

-Jason

[Rococo]

Hand 1 -- Not a big fan. Villain probably calls a smaller bet with TT, JJ, QQ, all of which are likely holdings, but he probably folds to a push. If you knew him to be terrible (as opposed to unknown), then a push might be a good idea.

Hand 2 -- Perfect. Villain probably is done with this hand unless he has a boat or a straight. He goes to the felt with the boat and maybe the straight as well.

Hand 3

Fine, although I think that there are a number of different ways to play this hand.

[anduril]

hand 1: The only real good part about this is he may put you on a busted flush draw, but then again your busted flush draw could be A5h. Enough to make me fold every hand that I open with except 77.

hand 2: His small bets scream QQ but if it's AK or KK he's got an interesting decision. Well not KK, then he calls and cries. If he'll call a 3x raise on the river, he may very well go all-in with tptk.

hand 3: I don't see him calling this monstrous bet in a nothing pot without a better hand, very small chance AA as well.

[Cornell Fiji]

The overbet is one of my favorite plays in general. But I don't really like the way that you used it in hands 1/3.

1- Why?

Worse hands than yours will pay off a wide range of bets but you will only get called by a boat. Doesn't make much sense IMO.

2- Perfect on the river but I think that it is a mistake to not be raising the flop or turn.

3- I really like leading this flop and overebetting a non spade turn. I can't fathom a way that the overbet nets you optimal EV however it is still a profitable play


-Steve

[theBruiser500]

i really don't like hand 1. the flop bet, he could bluff raise you or fold, if he folds you probaby missed his auto flop bet bluff, or he can call and then you lose. what is the point of the turn bet? river, he can put you on a fullhouse now and can't call with a big overpair, or he can put you on a straight i just don't see how this is getting paid off with a worse hand. smaller bet is in order. even if he does put you on a missed flush draw your overbet will be enough to "convince him" otherwise

i think your line in hand 2 is inconsistent (btw the only draw is 89 which got there). if yout hink he has a good hand that can call a big raise raise the turn, if you think he is weak make a small value raise on the river

[theBruiser500]

"Hand 2: Bueno. I like it. If he has a boat he must pay-off obviously. If he has AA or AK I'm not sure what he'll do, that has a lot to do with your table image and such."

if ml4l makes a smmall value raise this guy will push all in with a boat anyway. if he has AA or AK how could he possibly call??

[Jason Strasser]

People make those calls. Good point about the boat.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
if ml4l makes a smmall value raise this guy will push all in with a boat anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner!

I play bad... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

ML4L