KK with A on board - bet the turn?

LinusKS · #1 04-08-2005, 12:49 PM

The CO had fish stats, the UTG+1 was tight, but not especially aggressive.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (8.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB folds, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Two things: I wasn't going to fold this hand, and I didn't want to call a check-raise.

Thoughts?

Anyone think I should have folded the river?

Fat Nicky · #2 04-08-2005, 12:53 PM

Easy bet. The other players in the hand could easily have hands like KQ, QT, small/mid pairs, etc. No reason to assume one of them has you beat with an A.

Bill C · #3 04-08-2005, 12:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The CO had fish stats, the UTG+1 was tight, but not especially aggressive.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (8.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB folds, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

Two things: I wasn't going to fold this hand, and I didn't want to call a check-raise.

Thoughts?

Anyone think I should have folded the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should have bet the turn, especially with 2 checking in front of you. If you were then raised or check-raised, I suppose you could think about folding; or not, depending on your reads. You said "I'm not going to fold this hand", apparently because of your reads.

The turn check is weak and tells the others you have no Ace, setting up the kind of question on the river you'd rather not have to face there. Also, you don't really want to give a free card here.

bill

shark6 · #4 04-08-2005, 01:07 PM

The Ace on the turn sucks, but I’d bet it anyway and fold to raise. With this many people drawing, I wouldn’t want them to have a free chance to catch up if you were ahead.

LinusKS · #5 04-08-2005, 01:31 PM

Fat Nicky: You said "easy", but two players called two cold on the flop, and one raised into me, the pf raiser. Somebody's got to have something, don't you think?

What's the chance that something includes an A? If it's more than 50%, do you still bet here?

Bill: I agree with your thinking about the free card. But it's only a free card if you're ahead. How often do you think the kings are ahead?

ckessel · #6 04-08-2005, 01:38 PM

Seems like scared poker.

If you bet the turn a get check-raised you can probably call because you've got at least 4 outs (the jacks, maybe a king) and the pot is just big enough.

Then on the river the people who could have check raised show no strength, and the CO who checked the turn now bets hoping his non-ace pair will win. A clear call. Some wuss might have donked with Axs and win, but odds are you had the best hand.

Playing timid probably doesn't cost you any less when you lose (you said you'd call the river anyway), but it means you win less when you when. -EV.

Value bet the turn and river. You'll lose a decent portion of the time, but probably not more than 2/3rd of the time which is what would have to happen for the value bet to be wrong with 2 callers.

Fat Nicky · #7 04-08-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You said "easy", but two players called two cold on the flop, and one raised into me, the pf raiser. Somebody's got to have something, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, someone could feasibly have an A, but they could also have a flush draw, JT, QT, 88, 77, etc.

By not betting this turn, you are costing yourself money for the times someone doesn't have an A, because these players will likely call with the hands I mentioned above.

LinusKS · #8 04-08-2005, 01:52 PM

You didn't say how often, though.

I agree they could have a wide range of hands, but what I was asking about was the chance one of those hands contained an A.

I also agree the kings are losing money when no one has an A, but that just brings us back to where we started, doesn't it?

Fat Nicky · #9 04-08-2005, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't say how often, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know how exactly how often, but I think it's less than 50%, maybe something like 30 or 40%. Of course I am pulling those numbers out of my ass since I have no clue how to perform a calculation like this.

LinusKS · #10 04-08-2005, 02:20 PM

Well, if you were dealing with three random hands, it'd be easy.

Six chances at three aces, with six known cards ought to look like this (I think):

(43/46)^6 = chance no one has an A = 67%, meaning 33% one of six random cards is an ace.

But the chances are higher, because many of the hands good to medium players play contain an ace, and many bad players will play any hand that has one.

I'd accept any answer between 50-60%, but I'd have trouble accepting much less than that - less than 50%, I mean.

Agreed?