"The System" at work (long)

I just got done playing a PokerStars NLHE tourney (30+3)
The guy to my left was using some version of "The System"
(see Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, 21st Century Edition by David Sklansky).

He sat out the first round.
He mad several large all-in bets preflop.
His version seemed to be a bit tighter than the
Sklansky system since he didn't seem to be raising 15% of the time.
A few times he deviated by calling or making a small preflop raise. On these hands he bet or check-raised
all-in about half of the time.
I got short stacked and raised (nearly all-in) from the small blind with A6o. He put me all-in w/ K4o and hit
a King. Oops sorry, no bad beat stories here.
I stuck around to watch after I busted out.
His stack stayed near the average most of the time.
After the break he seemed to tighten way up.
His stack went from 3600 to 2000. He only
went all-in twice. He played zero hands on the
50-100, 25 ante round.

He busted out at 2K. The blinds were 100-200, 25 ante.
The cut-off raised all-in to 2.2K and he called with
TT. The cut-off had A7o but made a straight w/ the 7.
He finished 28th of 109.

The amazing thing to me was he Never got called on
an all-in bet. Not once. Two different UTG players
dumped their hands after making a 3x or 4x raise and
getting reraised ~20x the BB.


Some questions (answer any or all):
1) Was the fact that everyone continually folded
just a freak occurance? Can he expect to
get called more often?
2) How powerful can an all-in system be?
3) Once people see it a few times, are they
more likely to call a hand they figure to
have a small to medium advantage on?
4) What hands would you call on? Assume that
the player is raising on the top 10% of his hands.
5) What about using "the system" for part of a tourey.
E.g. example start with it to build a wild and crazy
image and then revert to normal play.
Or
Wait until you drop to some level (like 15x the BB)
and then use the system. If you build up enough
chips (like 22x the BB) quit using it.
6) Would you expect an all-in system to work
better on the internet or in a live tournament?

Later,
Cazz

[whiskeytown]

my thoughts on the system...are that it's been blown way outta proportion...LOL -

It seems like some people bought TPFAP just for the system, and the truth is, the overall wisdom of that book is much greater then the system, and a lot more useful.

If yer talking players with a 10,000 investment, then yeah...lots more mucking on the all in's.

As for me, once I see a loosie consistantly pushing all in...I wait for a high pocket pair or A suited and call him (esp. if I have more chips) - I want to get my chips in when I'm the odds on favorite...and it doesn't take long to realize who uses all-in's as a tactic and who doesnt...

I wouldn't use the system...it was designed for inexperienced players...if you lose a game or two cause of a bad beat...no sweat...

I can usually get up to 23rd without having to use the system, anyways....LOL -

RB

[Mason Malmuth]

The point of The System in TPFAP is the fact that moving all-in often is an effective tournament strategy. Furthermore, it will neutralize much of the advantage that superior players might normally have on you. They won't want to call since if they lose they're out of the tournament, and they won't be able to outplay you on the later streets if they do call.

MM

[Mason Malmuth]

I think your comments on The System are accurate. Its purpose was to demonstrate the effectiveness of moving all in with many hands in no-limit tournament play.

MM

[Bozeman]

I believe:

1) The system works reasonably, but not well, such that few experienced players would benefit from it.
2) The system is most annoying to good players.
3) As written, the system player is trying to build a big stack (not an average stack), and profits from the extra fear this can induce.
4) If the player was playing less than 10% of hands, they would probably be blinded out. I would not call such an all-in without at least KK.
5) The system player should be able to survive being called all-in a few times.
6) It was designed for the main event: I expect that fewer people would call there than in (much) smaller buy-in events, allowing you to bet more hands and thereby build an above average stack.
7) Overbetting the pot is seldom a useful tactic in hold'em (unless all-in is only a slight overbet), so I wouldn't try to meld system tactics with a regular game.

Remember, the system has to purposes: to allow a tyro to participate in the main event, and to illustrate that there are not very large edges between hands preflop (this may be a slight oversimplification of its pedagogical use, but not entirely offbase).

Craig

I don´t think, that the System will work very well in the big one. Given that each other player has 1 of 295 possible starting hands a player using the system will run into AA every 32,77 times he raises. Let´s assume that nobody will call the all in raise with a hand less that AA (which I doubt to happen), he will run into AA probably on the 1st day of the event. As we all know, even 65s is a big dog to AA, although it is the best hand to play against AA (BTW: Can somebody explain the difference in probability between 65s and 76s?).

So somebody playing the system is probably out or close to out before the 1st day is done. I doubt, that someone has a bigger probability than 1% to make the money using the system in the big one. Especially, since it is very unlikely that only AA will call you. KK will call you most fo the times, QQ, AK(s) too. And maybe even way worse hands, which might dominate you to a high degree. (JJ against JTs and so on)

It might be something else in a smaller and shorter, but still high buy in - event, let´s say a 3000$ WSOP-tourney. If you get lucky enough to survive against AA or KK once this might be enough to make it to the money and, who knows, maybe even to the final table.

In a small buy in event you will get called way too often with hands which will dominate you, that you won´t have any success.

Anyway, DS developed the System for a player who played poker the very first time in her life. This player will have a way bigger chance to reach the money or even only day 2 using the system than not using it.

Just my thoughts

Martin Aigner

[Mark Walkley]

"As we all know, even 65s is a big dog to AA, although it is
the best hand to play against AA (BTW: Can somebody explain
the difference in probability between 65s and 76s?)."

I guess the 76 wins the straights when the board is 23456.
The 56 would only tie.

That's the only difference I can see.

There was a thread on r.g.p about this a few months back.

Mark.

[Mark Walkley]

Sorry to follow up my own post but the link below gives a
more detailed answer to the question.
Posted by Barbara Yoon to rgp:

http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=e...b.news.rcn.net

Cheers,
Mark.

[Bozeman]

65s loses more against AA than 76s, but it ties more as well, resulting in an increase in EV.

391637 wins for 76
391582 wins for 56 = 55 more wins for 76. What are these?

77766 and 55566 are both wins for 76, but 77766 is a loss for 56. However, this only accounts for 3 boards. Anyone want to figure out the rest?

6415 ties for 65
5499 ties for 76 = 916 more ties for 56. What are these?

I'm stumped on these at the moment; anyone want to help?

Craig

But seriously, folks:

7-6 s was Doyle's fave hand with which he limped, not raised.
(Where did I put my copy of Super/System ?)

What does TPFAP advocate? Going all-in with 65s?

(I'd buy the book but I'm too busy presently clipping coupons and filling out unemployment forms)

Say you're in a $3000 tourney, no re-buys. Blinds are $20-$40, early round. fairly even stacks

You're UTG+2 they fold to you, you have A-Jo and you raise $200 (don'task)

Everyone folds except the button, who calls.

Flop is 2-7-10s (not your suit)

You check (don't ask)

He goes all in. Do you call?

Same scenario, only this time only the 7-10 are s. (again not your suit).

CHECK CHECK (again don't ask)

turn is 4, s to the 7-10 , you check, he goes all in

Now what?