How Weak Is This?

ckmj23 · #1 04-07-2005, 12:33 PM

Villan is Loose Passive.

I know not betting this river is really weak, I guess I just want confirmation from all of you. My ONLY justification was that villan raised preflop.

Can anyone tell me just how costly it is not to bet the river?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

jaxUp · #2 04-07-2005, 12:34 PM

very.

madscratch · #3 04-07-2005, 12:38 PM

Yep, very weak. I think this is the "seeing monsters under the bed" syndrome that you want to avoid. Villian doesn't have a 3, so at this point do you really think he's got one of 3 kings to beat you? He may have raised pre-flop on KK or AK, but also maybe TT, JJ, AT, AJ, etc...

moose47 · #4 04-07-2005, 12:41 PM

I believe you already know the answer but yes this is an easy river bet.

UncleSalty · #5 04-07-2005, 12:44 PM

Villain has AQ/AJ a large percent of the time and is probably chasing a gutshot. If he made a flush on the turn he would raise. DEFINITELY bet this river for value.

MrWookie47 · #6 04-07-2005, 12:46 PM

And another kitten bites the dust.

afk · #7 04-07-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has AQ/AJ a large percent of the time and is probably chasing a gutshot. If he made a flush on the turn he would raise. DEFINITELY bet this river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]Even most loose passives won't call on the river with only Ace high - I don't see how this is a value bet if you knew villain had AQ or AJ.

That said. I still bet this river because hands like 88-JJ and a bunch of other open-raising hands will call, of course the range depends on just how loose and passive villain is.

ckmj23 · #8 04-07-2005, 12:59 PM

I have 33 hands on Villan

VP$IP 66.67% PFR 9.09% No aggression

Its almost embarrasing to post villans stats, Why the %$@#% didnt I bet

afk · #9 04-07-2005, 01:04 PM

You should really include in the original post that he has been loose and aggressive before the flop, but passive after. With a pfr% of 9 (only 30 hands but still) then there are a LOT of hands he could be open raising. Bet that river every time and call a check-raise. If he landed a king, so be it.

ckmj23 · #10 04-07-2005, 01:07 PM

Thank you,

I really just needed to be told how WEAK this play was [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]