Is there a such thing as 200BB downswings?

[wrto4556]

I'm stuck $800. I was in a bad rut for the last week or so and lost $400. Yesterday I won $30 and thought maybe the cards were going to turn around, well tonight, in less than 2 hours, I managed to lose another $350. I went over my hands, and sure, I make mistakes but not that bad.

Is this just varience or do I need to quit? I just started posting here, so I doubt anyone has a view of how good I am, so I just want to know if varience gets that bad.

[TheMetetron]

Yes, it gets much worse. That doesn't mean you don't suck and shouldn't stop, but it does get worse.

[Derek132260]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm stuck $800. I was in a bad rut for the last week or so and lost $400. Yesterday I won $30 and thought maybe the cards were going to turn around, well tonight, in less than 2 hours, I managed to lose another $350. I went over my hands, and sure, I make mistakes but not that bad.

Is this just varience or do I need to quit? I just started posting here, so I doubt anyone has a view of how good I am, so I just want to know if varience gets that bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing you're playing 2/4? A lot of the literature says that even if you're a good player at a certain limit, you ought to have 100BB bankroll to account for variance. 200BB??? I dunno. I'm sure it's not unheard of, and everyone busts out from time to time. But maybe you take a quick step back, really review your game, look over hand logs and see exactly what you would change and where. And maybe you move down to 1/2 for a week or two, tighten up a little, and see what you get up to. BTW, I'm no expert, but this would be my advice. Hope it helps.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, it gets much worse. That doesn't mean you don't suck and shouldn't stop, but it does get worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I wanted to hear.

[Emperor]

A known winner and 2+2 poster, at 15/30 had a 600BB downswing in January.

If you are beating the game then you might get away with 300BB for awhile IF you are willing to move down when it looks like you are going to bust.

If you are just breakeven player after rake, then you probably need 1000BB.

Personally I just hit TWO 200BB downswings within a couple weeks of each other. The last one before that was a year ago. I'd say a winning player can expect them every 75K-100K hands maybe more.

My new rule is 1250BB, I can drop 250BB and still not freak out. I'll just drop down a level and grind it back if needed.

Good Luck

[sobroke]

variance suck!!!!......i pulled 2gs last month at 3/6....and this month so far im on a 1500 downswing......im playing the same way....but juss gettin some horrible beats......it juss happens.....

[oreogod]

christ 600BB, man. I can do without one of those.

Hell the last thing I want is a 200BB downswing right now.

[Moozh]

200 BB downswings definitely happen. I think most regulars here have gone through one. Play 50,000 hands and you're probably going to hit at least one. Still, that doesn't mean you shouldn't be worried... How many hands have you played at this limit total?

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
200 BB downswings definitely happen. I think most regulars here have gone through one. Play 50,000 hands and you're probably going to hit at least one. Still, that doesn't mean you shouldn't be worried... How many hands have you played at this limit total?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've logged about 50,000 hands total, but only about 13,000 at the $2/4 level. Why?

[masonx]

[ QUOTE ]
variance suck!!!!......i pulled 2gs last month at 3/6....and this month so far im on a 1500 downswing......im playing the same way....but juss gettin some horrible beats......it juss happens.....

[/ QUOTE ]

heh chances are your not a winning player...