Abdul Question: Mucking A-K Preflop

Jim Brier · #1 10-24-2002, 03:30 PM

On rgp, Abdul Jalib asks: "When do you muck A-K preflop?"

William Coleman provided an interesting response and ended his post with:

"By the way, there is one situation where you should definitely muck A-K offsuit for two bets. If the raiser is super-tight, and you are sure he only raises with AA, KK, or AK, then you should muck AK without hesitation when facing a raise from a player this tight."

I am not sure I agree with this. Consider the fact that there are 9 ways for him to have AK and only 6 ways for him to have AA or KK given that you have AK. Suppose you can isolate the guy by 3-betting? If he has AA or KK he will 4-bet. If he has another AK he will call. Now consider what happens postflop when he has another AK, which will be the majority of the time. The flop will almost always miss both of you. But since you have position, you can simply bet him out of the hand given that he is "supertight". If he has AA or KK, you will quickly discover this before the turn and can simply fold. The point is that you can play against this "supertight" play very accurately given that you have position.

I think you need to consider how a hand gets played postflop in addition to addressing whether or not you may or may not have the best hand.

What does everyone else think?

andyfox · #2 10-24-2002, 04:04 PM

I've never known a player who only raises with A-A, K-K or A-K. I've known some who claim they do, but never any who actually do.

But assuming this player does exist, I think he wouldn't necessarily follow your scenario. Sometimes, when I raise with A-A and it's 3-bet behind me and everyone else folds, I just call, just check-call again on the flop, and then check-raise the turn. Other times, when I raise with A-K and it's 3-bet behind me and everyone else folds, I 4-bet and bet the flop and turn. In other words, there are people who sometimes play A-A like A-K and A-K like A-A. So it's sometimes hard to simply bet the guy out of a hand.

I realize Coleman says the opponent is "super-tight" but there are plenty of guys who are tight-aggressive who can be very dangerous.

#3 10-24-2002, 05:05 PM

I know that this is in the general theory forum, but nobody plays like this. What kind of game will there be players bad enough to play in the way that you describe, but tight enough that your 3 bet will isolate the original raiser. Notice you will be in extremely bad shape if any loose players call behind you. Best case is 2 of your cards are dead and you have to chop the pot if you hit. Or if he has AA or KK you are drawing very slim. I'm not arguing that it is correct to muck AK preflop for 2 bets though. I have never played in a game where it was correct to do so.

Ed Miller · #4 10-24-2002, 05:09 PM

So 40% of the time, you are toast... losing 90% of hands or so (obviously you lose more against AA and less against KK, but I'll average). It will probably cost you some bets post-flop to find out that you are beaten. But the blinds are laying you some odds here, so I'll consider it a wash for now and say you have to win 50% of heads-up hands to break even. That means you have to get tighty to fold his AK about 75% of the time just to break even here. He's gonna hit the flop close to 25% of the time here alone.

That is assuming heads-up. If a pocket-pair calls your 3-bet then you are in even bigger trouble (even if 72o calls your 3-bet you aren't cheering because they have 6 outs to pair while you have only 4).

If you have any edge at all... it is miniscule. If you know a guy will raise only with AA, KK, or AK... I think you need to fold.

Ed Miller · #5 10-24-2002, 05:17 PM

In fact, if you assume that tighty will 4-bet only with AA or KK, you barely have odds to call the 4th bet, implying that you've essentially lost your first 3 bets right out in that case. I think I was wrong in the first post, though.. you only need to get tighty to fold 67% of the time if he has AK (I was counting the times he doesn't fold as losses, not pushes before for some dumb reason). Even so, I think that if you have an edge... it is really pretty tiny... and it implies basically perfect post-flop play and no trickery at all by tighty (god forbid he slowplays his AA once).

Mike · #6 10-24-2002, 05:39 PM

I think I have to agree. If you have two people in the hand holding AKx, they should not be favorites to win the hand as they are holding a portion of each others outs. A third player in the hand should hold the hand advantage, especailly if he has a strong enough hand to call three to four bets preflop.

Clarkmeister · #7 10-24-2002, 05:44 PM

"What do you think?"

I think you should ignore anything that William Coleman, also known as Ramashiva posts. He is without a doubt the largest troller on RGP right now, and that is saying something. You may not know this, but he has also been banned from this site for clutting the forum with many useless and frequently offensive posts.

Regards

Jim Brier · #8 10-24-2002, 06:12 PM

"This means you have to get tighty to fold his AK about 75% of the time just to break even here. He is gonna hit the flop close to 25% of the time here alone."

You are correct. Given that you both have AK, there is only about a 24% probability that an ace or a king will flop. So 24% of the time you tie. The other 76% of the time, given that he is tight, you can almost certainly bet him out of the hand. He is facing a 3-bettor having nothing but overcards which may not be any good even if he catches a pair. If not on the flop, certainly on the turn.

Nevertheless, you are probably correct but I don't think it is nearly as one-sided as Coleman suggests.

Dynasty · #9 10-24-2002, 07:28 PM

What's up with people re-posting stuff from RGP written by former 2+2 posters? If I want to wade through the garbage of Quadnines or William Coleman/Ramashiva, I'll just go there and do it.

Jim, why the hell would you openly legitimize the poker views of this nutcase who likes sing the prises of Bin Laden, Hitler, and company? Ignore this scumbag. Don't legitimize him.

Rick Nebiolo · #10 10-25-2002, 12:11 PM

Andy,

You wrote: "I've never known a player who only raises with A-A, K-K or A-K. I've known some who claim they do, but never any who actually do."

I've heard there are one or two retired types who play like this in Las Vegas during weekday afternoons. But I never saw or met them. [img]/forums/images/icons/smirk.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick