Top pair top kicker problem...

[swedeD]

Should I fold, call or raise after villians all-in move?

Reads:

UTG: tight and a little bit passive, with two-pair or a set he would have raised my bet after the flop.
Villian: no maniac, but can gamble a lot if he have outs. Would probably make a smaller raise with twopair or a set.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

UTG ($32.44)
MP :#A500AF(Villian)/ ($15.05)
Button ($18.15)
Hero ($34.05)
BB ($15.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, MP, <font color="#CC3333"> Villian raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25.

Flop: ($2) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $2, Villian raise $14.55 (All-In)

[swolfe]

fold the flop

[zaxx19]

There isnt any problem. Muck and see another hand.

[FlipPoker]

You have top pair/top kicker, but it seems like the villain does have two pair or a set (and he doesn't want the flush to come). Then again, he's short-stacked so he could be making a move. Also, the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] doesn't help you because of the flush draw. You also have to worry about the UTG player. I'd fold. Wait for a better spot to get your money in.

[swedeD]

I wish I had... :/

I had a pretty good read on this guy, so I pictured him on a strong draw, and that he just made a gutshot. Though I thought UTG also was on a draw (or maybe middle pair), I wanted to isolate Villian to increase my chances to win the pot (only the outs for one drawing hand to worry about). I only do this kind of play if I have good reads against my opponents. When Villian won with OESD and two overcards I first thought, ok, he was lucky and I was actually happy because I made a good read. But then I realized I have to study more probability. I was only a 53% favorite. And against QKs of spades I would have been an 34% underdog.

Question: Would you have made this call if you could see his cards? Is a 53% favorite enough?


Hero calls $31.55 (All-In), UTG folds.

Turn: ($52.10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($52.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $52.10

Results:
Villian has Kh Qh (one pair, kings).
Hero has Jc As (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Villian wins $33.10. Hero wins $19. </font>

[PoBoy321]

53% favorite is more than enough to make the call. You made the right call, there's nothing else you could do. You're going to lose a hand sometimes. Get over it.

However, I still probably would've folded the flop.

[xorbie]

Me too. His min-raise PF and then push on the flop could be KQ, but it could be KK/AA.

[swolfe]

yes, 53% favorite is enough...any favorite is +EV when you're getting better than even money.

the issue is that what he had was probably the worst hand that he would have made that play with. most of the time you will be an underdog...

[swedeD]

... this was absolutely not a "I lost a hand please hug me post". [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I agree that, in most cases a fold would be the obvious action in this situation. But at this level a lot of players can do this kind of all-in moves with cards like top pair weak kicker. Anyway, I have to be almost 100% sure about a call like this (only a 53% favorite) to justify it. Just a few more possible hands that I think he could have and I'm the dog in the long run.

Well, thanks for the response.