30-60 what's your river line?

[PokerPrince]

Decent online game with a few soft spots. Loose utg raises, looser utg+1 coldcalls(any two broadway, any small pair). I 3-bet from sb with AA and both call after bb folds. Three to see a flop.

Flop: K,J,5 rainbow

I bet, utg call, utg+1 raises and I 3-bet. Utg folds and i get called by the loose goose.

Turn: K,J,5,3 rainbow

I bet and get raised. At this point I am almost totally sure I'm up against KJ and need an Ace,5 or 3 to win the hand. This player had been slowplaying small sets all night so I feel if he had 55 he'd wait til the turn to put his first raise in, so KJ seemed the only logical choice.

River: K,J,5,3,3

Ok I hit my money card(or presumed money card). What do you do and why? Remember this player is loose and moderately aggressive.

PokerPrince

[flytrap]

First of all, it's not a guarentee that you're behind on the turn. This is where you need pokertracker to check his aggression factor. That being said, it's likely you hit the winning hand on the river, but it's not a lock, therefore betting is better than going for a check raise. If you bet and get raised, you call, and if you lose it's 2 bets, whereas if he has a boat and you c'raise, it's 3 bets.

[PokerPrince]

As stated in my post, I put him squarely on KJ and I was about 90% sure. Pocket 5's seem much less likely from what I've seen from this opponent. If I bet the river my intention would be to 3-bet a raise not just call as he has top two pair and calling would be silly. OR I could checkraise and get a guaranteed two bets out of it.

PokerPrince

[Diplomat]

At first I thought of betting out, but that would be better against your standard random loose aggressive whackjob. This looks like a mighty fine spot for a river checkraise.

-Diplomat

[BeerGolfPoker]

You didn't say anything about villain's aggression factor, but I assume he would have 3-bet JJ or KK preflop.

That leaves 55 or KJ (and possibly some hands you were ahead of on the turn), KJ obviously being more mathematically likely.

I like the CR here. If he has KJ he will clearly bet when checked to, and unless he's got you pegged he's paying off too. If you lead, he may fear the board pair and just call.

If he has 55, you're losing at least 2 bets here, but whatever.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
At first I thought of betting out, but that would be better against your standard random loose aggressive whackjob. This looks like a mighty fine spot for a river checkraise.

-Diplomat

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/3bet?

[Diplomat]

Yeah. If he was a bit crazy I'd rather bet and hopefully three-bet.

-Diplomat

[PokerPrince]

So I checkraise him and get called. He shows KJ before his hand mucks. I just wonder if going for a bet/3-bet might have been a better play.

PokerPrince

[elindauer]

This decision seems clear: Check raise. He'll surely bet top 2 on the river, and then pay off without thinking, hoping for AK / bluff.

Eric

[Baulucky]

Is check-calling here really horrible?.