Made a set against well-defined opponent

[etgryphon]

Hey all,

I was playing $22 10 person SnG on UB yesterday and came up against this.

Villian: UTG ~3000 chips
Hero: SB ~1400 chips dealt 55
Blinds: 20/40

Reads on Villian: Not too impressive, has definate betting patterns. The deck had been hitting him in the face. He min bets with AA/KK/QQ. Raises a real amount with AK/AQ. I have seen him min raise with AA twice and once with KK and once with QQ. (All in about 30 hands..Lucky SOB).

Villian min raises to 80, All folds to MP2, MP2 calls, folds to CO who calls, I call, BB folds

Pot: 200
Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks (going for the c/r), Villian bets 100, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to 300, Villian thinks for a little bit and folds...

I feel like I whifted (sp) a great opportunity here. The more I think about it, I think I should have just called and pushed any non-flushed flop. Or should I have lead out on the flop? I think he folded KK or QQ...

-Gryph

[sofere]

Wow...I've seen weak tight, but jeez! Does the check-raise really mean that he MUST have AA? There are two ways you can play this.
(a) Call and hope he leads out on the turn, then stick it to him.
(b) Reraise and call any push.

Note that folding is NOT one of the above options.

Seriously...how many times have you played with this guy that you can say with confidence that every time he minraises he has AA.

[Texas Pete]

I bet the pot on the flop. If he's terrible with KK or QQ he won't be able to put it down. If he has an ace he'll pay you. If he has a flush draw he's paying too much for the card. But check raise sets off alarm bells when he bets, and gives a free card other times.

[Texas Pete]

You might want to have another cup of coffee.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

If your read says min-raise = AA, KK, or QQ, why aren't you folding this pre-flop?

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
If your read says min-raise = AA, KK, or QQ, why aren't you folding this pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding right? I'd play this everytime if I knew that he had one of those hands. The implied odds are off the charts if the flop comes down J high. I seen him more his whole stack in with an overpair twice before to bust TPTK. I was sure he would do it again if the flop came correct.

-Gryph

[etgryphon]

Uhhh...HE folded not me...

-Gryph

[sofere]

Sorry...misread, thought villain C/R-ed, apologies.

[etgryphon]

Yeah...This is what I was thinking later on. I had a pretty tight image at the table (if anyone had been paying attention) I just didn't want him to dump it so I couldn't get any money. He was bad but not THAT bad. I figured him to dump KK/QQ on a A high flop if bet into. I just don't like the thought of calling his bet because it doesn't tell me anything. I would think that he might have slowplayed a top set.

I don't know. My thinking at the time was I was sure (80-90%) I could get him to bet if check into, but I think he would have dumped it if bet into. It that whole risk vs. reward here. Lock up some surer (sp) profit with the c/r or go for a riskier lead or call.

-Gryph

[etgryphon]

No prob...Now, that you have reread it. What do you think?

-Gryph