JJ vs possible blind steal

cockandbull · #1 04-04-2005, 10:43 AM

This looks standard to me, however i guess this is not the most profitable line vs a blind steal. comments?

Villain seems to be a reasonable player but too passive postflop. my reads from about 100 hands 20/10/1.5

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB

shark6 · #2 04-04-2005, 01:27 PM

Looks good to me. I’d expect to see Villain show AK or an unimproved mid pocket pair enough for this line to be profitable.

stevew · #3 04-04-2005, 01:31 PM

The villian/hero caps preflop and again on the flop. The villian is passive postflop and calls it down. I wouldn't be surprised to see KK or QQ.

einbert · #4 04-04-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is too passive postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

You gave too much action on this hand. I think you should have folded to the flop threebet.

flopmonster · #5 04-04-2005, 01:46 PM

I think you played it well. You are going to take a hit here if he has a higher pocket pair, but I think it pays to be this aggressive in the long run.

einbert · #6 04-04-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played it well. You are going to take a hit here if he has a higher pocket pair, but I think it pays to be this aggressive in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand you do you really expect a 'too passive' villian to 3-bet this flop with that we can beat?

Most players don't cap with 77-99 PF here, maybe he did but I think he would have slowed down to your flop cr if he is indeed two passive with those hands.

And those are the ONLY hands he could possibly hold that we beat. While there are t on we are drawing nearly dead to.

shark6 · #7 04-04-2005, 01:57 PM

I think with a 10% PFR and a blind steal situation, we can greatly expand the Villian’s possible holdings.

einbert · #8 04-04-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think with a 10% PFR and a blind steal situation, we can greatly expand the Villian’s possible holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, at the point of PF. Once he has capped the PF and threebet our flop CR, I think we have to start considering whether he's really 'stealing light' or if he has a better hand than ours. And I don't think his hand range is wide enough that we can call this down profitably.

I mean do you really think a 'too passive' opponent three-bets this flop with AK? A too aggressive one sure, a correctly aggressive one sometimes, a too passive one never.

shark6 · #9 04-04-2005, 02:03 PM

I would note that some people really change their styles in these blind steal situations. And, I wouldn’t consider a 1.5 AF passive enough to fold to a 3-bet.

If his AF were substantially below 1.0 I would consider folding on the turn if he bet/raised.