50K stat check - help me find my leaks...

[bvaughn]

I've broke the 50,000 hand threshold at 15/30, and wanted to get feedback on my stats and find my leaks. I know I have leaks because my win rate is not above 2 BB/100 like the very best players...the ones I want to become like. One leak that I know I have is calling on the river when it is clear that I am beat which shows up as a 22% win percentage when I only call on the river.

VPIP: 18.11%
PFR: 10.79%
VP$ in SB: 30.52%
Fold SB steal: 78.34%
Fold BB steal: 61.17%
Att. steal blinds: 30.15%
W$WSF: 37.15%
Went to SD: 35.03%
Won $ at SD: 53.98%

Agg. Factors: PF 1.13 F: 2.48 T: 2.57 R: 2.15

River stats: W$SD when bet/r/c-r = 73.95% W$ when just call = 22.09% Fold to river bet = 41.27%

Check raise: total: 2.2%, F: 54.42%, T: 41.17% R: 4.42%

Win Rate: 1.13 BB/100

My position stats look normal as I noticeably loosen up with better position from 11.48% UTG to 18.35% on the button, and my win rate per hand increases with position as well. My cold call PF% overall is .32 with a 1.13% cold call on the button - is this too high? The hands I have cold called with the most, in order, are: KQs (18 times), AJs (14), 66 (12), KJs (9), 77 (9), and then some medium pairs and A10s all around 7 times.

My blind stats are VPIP SB = 30.52%, VPIP BB = 22.98% with win rates of -.17 in SB and -.24 in BB. How does my blind play look because I seem to make my worst "plays" from the blinds?

My MT ration is 3.19 with a "true" hourly rate of $77.06. I win only 48.01% of my sessions - seems like this is low?

I am averaging about 25,000 hands per month.

I play poker as a second, part-time job, and I have no plans of leaving my first job to become a "pro". But, if something very unexpected happened and I was fired or laid off (my company is "restructuring" soon) do you real pros think I could make it as a "pro" at least until I found another job?

[mmcd]

One leak that I know I have is calling on the river when it is clear that I am beat which shows up as a 22% win percentage when I only call on the river.

The average pot size at this point is almost going to be greater than 5bb so this is not a leak. You are making money on these calldowns in the aggregate.

[DeeJ]

Looks fine, but I think the odd BB might be in a marginally low VPIP.

Are you folding the SB too easily given you have 2/3 of a SB in there already? Are you playing the players (fish) more aggressively/passively as situation dictates?

[Senor Choppy]

Don't worry so much about your win rate. 1.13 is pretty good, and 50k is a small enough sample that your true earn might actually be 2+bb/100 anyway.

Win % when just calling on the river is a difficult stat to interpret. Considering most river calls are probably laying you, maybe, 8-1 on average, winning 1 in 5 is great. Against bad or unpredictable opponents, you simply aren't going to know when you can safely fold in certain hands, or you're getting too good of a price to fold.

You seem to be folding to river bets a bit too often, which seems to contradict the 22.09% number. I'm guessing this will improve as you get better at reading how people play in the 15.

You could play a lot more hands in the small blind. In unraised pots, there isn't a lot I would fold. Your overall results in the blinds could improve some, but it's more about improving feel than fixing some clear leak.

Overall things look good. As far as whether or not you can make it as a pro, winning $70/hour sounds like you're already making it.

[bvaughn]

When I first moved into the 15/30 game, I was playing much tighter trying to feel my way around...probably vpip around 16%. Over the last month or so, I've been adding hands in late position and trying to force myself to call more SBs and I have been playing around 19.5% for the last 20,000 hands or so. I feel comfortable with the hands I've added in late position, but I don't feel comfortable out of the SB yet. I know that some people can play over 20% of their hands, but I'm having a really hard time finding hands that I'm comfortable with playing to add - maybe as I improve I'll be able to find these hands.

How loose can you go from the SB? When it is unraised, I'll play just about any Ace, any connectors, any broadway cards and any suited 1-2 gappers...I'm folding hands that seem to have no other value other than two pair or a very tedious top pair, especially if there is only one or two limpers in the pot. When there are more limpers, I'll play more hands for the extra $5 but I'm still fairly selective - I mean, is 10-5off or J-5off or even Q-7off worth the $5?

I've improved on figuring out who to play against on these tables, trying to isolate the fish and the maniacs, and usually avoiding the TAGs that I've identified. But, I'm still learning how far to go with some of my marginal hands against specific types of opponents.

[bvaughn]

Choppy, thanks for the reply - I asked the same question in my earlier reply, but how far down can you go in the SB in an unraised pot? You said there's not alot you would fold so what are a few examples of what you would fold?

Also, I'm glad I posted the river stats, and I'm actually suprised that the 22% win rate is acceptable when just calling. I realize that the pot odds are usually much better than 5:1 but some of the calls I make seem just foolish to me, but I guess I remember these "foolish" calls more than my good calls where my ace-high is good or my low pair is good.

So, what do you think the optimal percentage would be for folding to a river bet?

[flub]

You can play anything in the SB in an unraised pot. 72o yes. T5o you bet.

-flub

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
One leak that I know I have is calling on the river when it is clear that I am beat which shows up as a 22% win percentage when I only call on the river.

The average pot size at this point is almost going to be greater than 5bb so this is not a leak. You are making money on these calldowns in the aggregate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. In fact, I'd say that if you've been playing in some loose wacky games (like Party 15/30), your win rate of 22% may indicate that you're not calling enough on the river. Either that, or you're opting to check call the river too much rather than betting it yourself or raising it.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

What are the odds of flopping two pair or better with any random two cards? And how many bets do you make post flop with them?

The answer to that is how often you call the $5 in the SB after limpers.

The more limpers the 'worse' your hand can be.

Later,
MarkV.

[Senor Choppy]

An excellent postflop player can probably play any 2 profitably. For everyone else, the only advantage to playing 83o and the like is for image reasons (although I imagine they start to show a profit with a ton of limpers). Folding the sb over and over is probably a good way to get targeted as a folder. As far as concrete advice goes, I'd start playing any 2 with the exception of hands that have 2 cards lower than a 10 that can't make a straight (unless they're suited).

My win rate when calling is 33%, which seems a bit too high. I would guess 25% is ideal, but it really depends on the quality of calls you're making. It's more about feel than hitting some magic number.