Strange river AQs

Danenania · #1 04-03-2005, 08:23 AM

Villain is loose and passive preflop. Postflop he is very predictable. Numbers are 40/5/1 after >400 hands. What do we think?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (5 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, MP calls.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16 BB

daryn · #2 04-03-2005, 09:31 AM

what do you put him on, precisely QJ?

call the river

Danenania · #3 04-03-2005, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what do you put him on, precisely QJ?

call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, QJ. I nearly called but I felt certain I was behind. What do you put him on?

ggbman · #4 04-03-2005, 10:56 AM

This is horrible. Don't raise if you can't call a 3 bet. He could have QK. You if you think you're behind, check call and invest 1 bet to see a showdown instead of investing 2 bets and giving yourself NO CHANCE to win.

kapw7 · #5 04-03-2005, 11:02 AM

I don't get this. How can you be that sure he holds QJ and fold? You have 16:1 pot odds and the best kicker. Isnt there a 6% chance he dosn't have a full-house?

Danenania · #6 04-03-2005, 11:03 AM

Um, I don't think we're on the same page here. I wasn't worried about being behind going into the river.

krishanleong · #7 04-03-2005, 11:09 AM

How did you decide to cr the river here? It make no sense to me given the turn action. And folding to the 3-bet here seems ludicrous.

Krishan

Danenania · #8 04-03-2005, 11:10 AM

Think from a relatively passive, predictable player's point of view. You think he's 3-betting KQ or Qx after being 3-bet on the turn and checkraised on the river? We don't have to talk in percentages here because my read is reliable. Either he will do this with KQ/Qx or he won't. If he won't, then it's a waste of money for me to call.

Danenania · #9 04-03-2005, 11:10 AM

Why not c/r the river? It's obvious he has a Q and who can resist betting trips?

RunDownHouse · #10 04-03-2005, 11:35 AM

Why not c/r? Because you're spending 2BB on the river to find out if, according to your read, he has QJ, and then folding, when you could spend 1BB for the exact same info AND give yourself a chance at the pot.