Waiting to protect until turn: extremely large pot.

luckyplayer · #1 04-01-2005, 06:38 PM

UTG is LPP. No other reads.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (24.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Question: Is this a time I should only call? Nearly 26 small bets in the pot means that even if I raise, anybody with even 3 outs can usually cold call profitably.

Turn: (17.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Question: Does raising the turn do anything but protect me from overcards? All flushes are now dead, and UTG+1 bet out again after capping preflop, which tells me I'm likely behind here. Is calling a better option?

River: (27.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 31.20 BB

Delphin · #2 04-01-2005, 06:49 PM

On the flop, I think you played it right, but I'm interested in what others say, because this is a tough spot for me too.

On the turn, I definitely think you have to raise. If you are only getting overcards to fold, that's fine. You'd hate to see a A,K,Q on the river and lose to a better full house.

On the river, I just call. There is a good chance UTG+1 has AA,KK,QQ with the preflop cap.

aK13 · #3 04-01-2005, 06:53 PM

I like the play.

I think you're forced to raise on the flop -- the pot is huge already, so I think you want to try to get players out if you can (not many, but you'll at least get 1 or 2 to probably fold). Again, on the turn, same logic, but given UTG's actions, I would agree that you're probably behind a bigger pocket pair, but I still think you need to raise to get players out in case you're ahead to keep players with A or K high rivering you.

keikiwai · #4 04-01-2005, 06:57 PM

I flike preflop and flop.

A read on UTG+1 would be very important here.

I would not raise the turn. What do you gain? UTG+1 is clearly not folding, and what hands do you put him on? I would guess:
AA, KK or QQ w/ a small possibility of AKs or AKo (here's where the read would be important). Anyway, you are behind AA, KK, QQ, you're splitting the pot w/ JJ.

A turn raise may get a flush draw to fold due to the 3 of a kind on board, but it's outweighed by the fact that could well be behind UTG+1. This puts you in a difficult position, but I think checking through is the better course of action. I think you are playing against UTG+1. I don't think anyone has the 6 or the river would have been raised. I don't think anyone else except UTG+1 has a higher pocket pair than you (although you never know, there are people who routinely fail to re-raise pf w/ AA and even KK for whatever retarded reason, again reads help here). So, don't raise the turn, since you're not getting rid of UTG+1, and even if you get rid of everyone else, it won't matter if UTG+1 beats you.

In fact I would check both turn and river, and fold to any re-raise.

PS: I agree w/ that this is not protecting your hand but would be raising for value.

droolie · #5 04-01-2005, 07:00 PM

You can't protect your hand here. Your bets are for value. You have huge overlay with all the callers in this hand.

Look at it this way.... You have 3 weak callers in the hand. They all contribute they same amount each round as you and the pf raiser. If you only win this hand 30% of the time you make a ton of money if get in this situation and decide to ram and jam this 1000 times over. pf raiser might be making more money than you on average but you still profit as long as you're winning more then your fair share. I have very little doubt that you win this pot well over 20% of the time.

Only calling the river is OK because worse hands might fold for 2 bets but they will certainly call one. You therefore cannot value bet if you think that only hands that beat you will stay in to see the showdown. If you absolutely knew they would all call with hands you beat you could raise but I seriously doubt it here.

ErrantNight · #6 04-01-2005, 07:04 PM

this is an easy wait for the turn.

the pot is huge. it was capped 6 ways. your flop raise will accomplish nothing.

you can't offer much worse odds to your opponents on the turn, but you can offer much worse odds all the same.

additionally, there's a substantial number of overcards yet to drop. if they start falling, you'd like to not invest extra bets (but you're going to showdown).

lastly... UTG+1 capped. this is .05/.10 so i suppose the cap could mean anything, but as you move up, this probably means two cards that work really, really well together. like a higher pocket pair. you're playing on hoping they have unimproved overcards, or something like TT.

keikiwai · #7 04-01-2005, 07:13 PM

Win over 20% of the time?

The read would be important here... but let's see.

If UTG+1 is not overly aggressive then I put him on QQ, KK, AA. All of which you are behind, hence do not raise turn. I throw out AKs due to river action, but even throwing AKs in you will win less than 20% of the time.
AA (12)
KK (12)
QQ (12)
AKs (8)
you win 8 to 36 (8/44 = slightly < 20%)

If UTG+1 is very aggressive, then I put UTG+1 on TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or AKs (not AKo unless a maniac, even AKs unlikely due to river action, but let's throw it in).
TT (12)
JJ (1)
QQ (12)
AA (12)
AKs (8)
Total of 45 hand combos.
You are ahed of 20, tie 1 and are behind 24. Odds to win 20:25. Great odds! Go for it.

Truth is probably somewhere inbetween. The read makes the difference.

tomcain · #8 04-01-2005, 07:13 PM

I put UTG+1 on a full house also. I probably would not raise the turn.

Tom

DoctorDrew · #9 04-01-2005, 07:25 PM

Here's my read on this hand:

What raises PF and caps a 3 bet? AA, KK, QQ, JJ(Unlikely), AK (maybe AQs, TT, 99) with a higher probability of the first 3.

Flop: He leads (expected) Calls a raise makes me think overcards. BTW, I am raising here b/c I want more dead money in this huge pot. If I wait for the turn, I am not going to change the odds enough for most people to fold to a raise (8:1- most people will call this, so I am getting my money in when I think I am ahead)

Turn: Third 6 falls and he leads again. Is it more likely he thinks his overcards are good now, or is he more confident that his PP is good. I favor the later with him having an overpair that is not AA, but better than JJ. So, I think I go for the call here, because I can't lay this down and with so many callers, I have the implied odds to call.

River: Crying call, but I am certain you are beat (probably QQ). More important info would be what the callers have come along with.

So, unless UTG+1 is a total LAG or a tricky TAG, the chance you are ahead when he leads the turn are very small. But, I tend to tighten up in this situation against an unknown aggressor, figuring most online player are loose-passive.

FishHooks · #10 04-01-2005, 07:31 PM

I agree, waiting for the turn is best, your turn raise will give the callers behind you about 8:1 form the pot, good enough to push out gutshots etc, and that way you get more value from your hand. You can't assume the UGT will lead out on the turn like he did.