n00b question regarding downswings

fire_fly · #1 03-31-2005, 12:55 AM

dear god I know i'm gonna get flamed for this but....

I'm a (relatively) proven winner at micro levels. I'm averaging around 7bb/100 for the last 30k hands at .25/.50 and .50/1 and here's my question. Do 150 bb downswings REALLY happen when you are beating the games you play by this much? I'm asking cuz I'm in one, and I just can't help thinking to myself that it's somehow that I'm playing different, because in my 6, 7? hundred hours of poker I've never had this kind of swing before, not even close.

So, for those who are proven big winners, 2.5+bb/100 over 20k or so hands, does this kind of thing really happen? Have I just been "lucky" for 600 hours and 30k hands? I'd put a poll in here if I knew how.... any help with that?

Oh, and btw, just won my first 30 person live nl tourney last night [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

SomethingClever · #2 03-31-2005, 12:58 AM

They most definitely happen.

I had a 300 BB'er recently at 6-max.

Also, how many of your 30k are at .25/.5 and how many are at .5/1?

Care to post a screenshot?

KingOtter · #3 03-31-2005, 12:59 AM

Grats, and yes.

I recently had about a 110BB downswing, which was actually the first 7k hands of playing .50/1 at Party. Some of it was bad play, though, because my aggression numbers have absolutely changed.

For a while I thought it was table-selection, but I've been lazy lately and still have been doing alright with the game. , overall (had a tough past couple of days, but it's just been bad cards).

KO

A_C_Slater · #4 03-31-2005, 01:05 AM

You're most likely a good player that has been running very well. Read the FAQ on the top of this micro limit forum. It states that any BB/100 over 6BB/100 is probably unsustainable in the long run, meaning about 100k hands. Your downswing is just the Gods of Variance evening out your hot streak.

jaxUp · #5 03-31-2005, 01:07 AM

I beat .5/1 for 7BB/100 (granted only over 11k hands) and have never had a downswing at that limit. However, I have had 2 150+BB downswings at 6max and 1/2 full playing good poker. It happens. Buckle up and try not to get down on yourself. If you reach 250BB at the micros, it's time for a serious play evaluation (though you still may be fine).

UncleSalty · #6 03-31-2005, 01:27 AM

No flaming required. I just hit my 2nd downswing in the past 5 months. (100BB last night at pokerroom over about 1,000 hands - ugh.) It is really bizarre how much it makes you think that there's suddenly something drastically wrong with your skills. Last time I freaked out because I hadn't discovered 2+2 yet, but today I calmly logged on and just kept playing through it as if it had never happened. I know that people discourage these kinds of posts, but seeing one from someone else going through it at the right time is sure comforting...

Slug it out buddy, you'll get through just fine.

jaxUp · #7 03-31-2005, 01:34 AM

For anybody who wants to become numb to swings, I highly recommend playing like 15k+ hands of 6max in a month. It will redefine your world.

fire_fly · #8 03-31-2005, 01:34 AM

thx for the responses and clearing this up for me. As far as how much 25/50 versus 50/1 it's been mostly at the lower stakes, but I'm at ASSUMING that's not it, cuz after 4k hands (about 40 hours for me) the players at party seem right about as crappy as pokerroom where I was playing before. but if you want a screenshot, let me know...

DavidC · #9 03-31-2005, 04:11 PM

Well, I've been in 80-100 swings, and I know it hurts...

My buddy's been in worse than that.

One hting that you should consider is that you may be inclined to play more weakly when you're losing (not bluffing / semi-bluffing, etc.).

--Dave.

DavidC · #10 03-31-2005, 04:13 PM

There's a help file on how to post a poll (not sure where, maybe at bottom of page?). Don't abuse the feature, though. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Other than that, a tourney is a good idea for people on downswings. It gives them a lot of hands without losing a lot of money, and it's nice just to win pots every now and then, even if it doesn't land in your pocket.

Good idea, and congrats on the win.

--Dave.

Edit: [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]