Is it correct to Call.

Vince Lepore · #1 03-30-2005, 04:46 PM

I made a mistake in a multi the other day. It was a small online tourney but since I intend to play in some WPT events, when I get a backer, that is, I decided to post this question here.

We were in the money. 50 players left. Next money incerement was 40 but was an insignificant dollar amount.

Blinds: T500-1000

I was the BB with T1425 behind.

UTG raises all in to T1125.

Next Player - Moves in for T5k

My hand was A,7o. I mucked. Mucking was a mistake. The question is this: Which, if any, hands is it correct to muck in this situation? Why?

Vince

skoal2k4 · #2 03-30-2005, 04:49 PM

why was it a mistake?

Vince Lepore · #3 03-30-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why was it a mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

T1500 in blinds. T1125 from UTG (Desparate player could have anything). T5k from next player -

Pot 1500+1125+2925 = 5570. pot odds = 5570 to 1425.

Even if this is not the correct odds to call it represents a significant amount of Tournament chips considering the Blinds and my situation should I fold.

Vince

skoal2k4 · #4 03-30-2005, 05:28 PM

well, by that logic, any two cards are correct to call... yes?

Vince Lepore · #5 03-30-2005, 05:42 PM

[quotewell, by that logic, any two cards are correct to call... yes?]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that logic not correct?

Vince

skoal2k4 · #6 03-30-2005, 05:44 PM

i'm not being a smartass... i'm asking... I would think the answer is yes?

Greg (FossilMan) · #7 03-30-2005, 06:14 PM

You're getting over 3.5:1 on the call, and there's no reason to think you're against AA here, so it's an automatic call with any two cards.

Once you've already put 40% of your chips in as a blind, there's almost never a situation where it's correct to fold preflop. You're potstuck, so go for it, and hope you get there.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Daliman · #8 03-30-2005, 06:17 PM

Well, lets consider your hand versus two likely, but not strong hands; the kind of hands you'd like to see here. 66 and KQs.

If you call in this specific situation, you will win 28.6% of the time. The pot if you call is 6995, so 28.6% of that is T2000. SO the call is proper in this specific case, but this is pretty much a best-case scenario.

Probably closer to realistic expectation here here is going to be against hands like K9o from the UTG and AJ from the UTG+1. That gives you 18.65% pot equity, resulting in chip equity of T1305, making a call wrong.

The situation also can be EASILY way worse too, say with UTG pushing with A9 and UTG+1 calling with TT. In this scenario, you only win 9.6% of the pot, for chip equity of T672, a disatrous result.

Even if you are against two blithering idiots and are shown 23o and A4, your quity % is only 42.8% for 2994 chips equity, but this is pretty unlrealistic.

Of course, there are thousands of hands they could have, and I gave but a few likely candidates, and the most likely suspects are all -EV. Pretty easy and proper fold.

Not that you'll know, as you blocked me long ago... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Edit: I didn't double check the initial pot size #'s posted when I made this post, which has been since noticed and corrected twice,(once wrongly). The pot size is 520 less than originally used in this, thus making a call even worse in most cases. I don't care to recompute though.

smoore · #9 03-30-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot 1500+1125+2925 = 5570. pot odds = 5570 to 1425.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually:
1500+1125+1425 = 4050:1425 = ~2.85:1

You can't win the rest of his stack. With almost 3:1 and just about no money left if you fold I think I have to call here with most anything. Pokerstove users... what is the cutoff for 2.85:1?

Daliman · #10 03-30-2005, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting over 3.5:1 on the call, and there's no reason to think you're against AA here, so it's an automatic call with any two cards.

Once you've already put 40% of your chips in as a blind, there's almost never a situation where it's correct to fold preflop. You're potstuck, so go for it, and hope you get there.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree, for reasons outlined in another response in this thread. I doubt you can find many realistic +EV scenarios here. A call from UTG+1, even shortstacked a bit, can EASILY be a hand that dominates yours. I do feel however that if you had a hand like 9Ts however, you are much better off calling as non-domination is a much more likely case, and it will often play better 3 handed against the types of hand you will likely be up against here.

This type of thinking is a major flaw in your game, and you will never be successful in tournament play utilizing it....