Pot odds question: chasing with a garbage pair

[chopchoi]

what pot odds do I need to call the flop with a garbage pair, in hopes of winning the pot by making 2 pair or trips?

e.g., I have 9,2, and the board is Q,6,2 rainbow. I have 5 outs to 2 pair or trips, so the odds are against improving on the next card are about 10:1. Where I get confused is, I need to discount my outs to allow for the possibility that I make 2 pair and still lose, but I also neet to increase my outs for implied odds. Or do these last two steps cancel each other out, so that I still need 10:1 to call?

Also, how would this your answer to this question change if the flop were 2 suited? What about if it were Q,J,2 instead of Q,6,2?

[Ringo_Mojo]

I really hope you're the BB with 92. Otherwise this should be folded preflop. I'd be prepared to throw this hand out against any aggression post flop as its weak and you're out of position.

Your odds on 5 outs are wrong, its about 8.2 to 1.
You can figure out your pot odds by dividing the remaining unaccounted cards (47) by the number of outs (5) and subtracting 1. (47/5)-1 = 8.2 to 1

I'd probably discount the three 9s as less then full outs though as even with 2 pairs you might not have the best hand here. So lets (generously) say the 9s count as 2 full outs total and the 2s count for one out each. That gives you 10.5 to 1 odds. Of course if the pot is that big, then there's probably a lot more people in it (or some pre-flop raising which you should have folded to), and that increases the chances that you're already beaten.

Changing to Q,J,2 gives you the bottom of a backdoor straight draw, you might count this as one out.

Unless this is the most amazingly loose/passive table ever I think this hands should be ditched ASAP.

[itsmesteve]

until a T or J shows up i don't think the nines have to be discounted. the QJ 2 example there a re two to a suit. the 9 and 2 of that suit are no longer outs. the "straight" draw doesnt' really count as anything in my book, since we'll need runner runner to catch it and its the idiot end, 1/2 and out would be, imo, generous. if you have the 92 of the same suit as the board, i assume i have nine outs until the action tells me otherwise- ie someone's betting says bigger flush.

[Walker]

With 92 on a Q62 rainbow flop, I reckon all 5 outs to be good (if your opponents play suggests otherwise then the following does not apply.) If you knew everyone would fold on the turn if a 2 or a 9 were to fall, then you would need 8.4-1 pot odds to call (47/5 -1). This is unlikely, so your probably going to make some extra bets on the turn (and river, although your opponents may have 5-15outs collectively to beat you on the river (probably closer to 5) so these bets need to be weighted for the times you lose the pot there. For convenience you might just say they cancel.) To estimate how many bets you must take into consideration your opponents tendencies (will they call down with less than top pair, with TPWK?; will the flop better bet the turn?... etc) and your position in relation to the flop better (will you be able to trap the field with a check-raise or a raise in LP(if better in EP)?) By adding the average number of bets your going to make on the turn (remember, they're double sized bets) to the pot on the flop you get your implied odds. If this number is better than 8.4-1, you call.

If the flop were for example, Qh6h2d and you had 9d2c you might have to discount the 9h, 2h because either might make someone a flush. Against a large field you'd probably have to completely discount both, but heads-up they might be worth something. Your implied odds in this example aren't as good as in the first because a heart on the river might beat you.

If the flop were QJ2rainbow and the hand is multi-way, I think you have to discount the 9's because they might complete an OESD. Against one or two of players they might be worth most of a full out each; against a very large field maybe half an out each. Against a large field I think the backdoor draw is worth about half an out.


Please critique my analysis.

[Walker]

Edit: In the first example, there may well be more than 15 outs collectively against you on the river. Can someone help us out here in regards to implied/reverse implied odds?

[mhardy]

With your scenario, my short answer would be "the pot better be damn big" before I start thinking anything.

Maybe it's just the way I see things, but IMO there's another principle here to consider, taking into account your weakness: With that crap board you're not going to see much action to begin with. Implied odds by definition means there's a REALISTIC expectation people will put more money in the pot. With that crap, where's the money going to come from? It will come only from people that can kill you. This looks like a "win a little or lose a lot" kind of situation.

I wouldn't be thinking "what are my odds?"; I'd be thinking "I wonder what my next hand will be?"...

[GrunchCan]

With 92 on a board of [Q 6 2 r], you really just want an excuse to fold. This is a money pit.

There are 5 cards that improve your hand, but some of those cards are better than others. If you spike a 3rd 2, you will win very often, perhaps 80%-90% of the time. But if you spike a 9, your hand is still extremely vulnerable. If the board pairs your hand may be counterfeited or beaten by trips. When the 9 comes, it could give someone a gustshot or OESD. Usually the 9 will not complete the rainbow, potentially giving someone a flush draw, although this isn't much of a threat, comparitively. Basically if you hit a low 2 pair, you still are in big danger of losing the pot.

As far as valuing your hand here, I'd assign 1.5 outs to the 2s, and 1 out for the 9s, maybe 1.5 outs. That's a total of 2.5-3 outs, needing big pot odds indeed.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]

With 92 on a Q62 rainbow flop, I reckon all 5 outs to be good (if your opponents play suggests otherwise then the following does not apply.) If you knew everyone would fold on the turn if a 2 or a 9 were to fall, then you would need 8.4-1 pot odds to call (47/5 -1). This is unlikely, so your probably going to make some extra bets on the turn (and river, although your opponents may have 5-15outs collectively to beat you on the river (probably closer to 5) so these bets need to be weighted for the times you lose the pot there. For convenience you might just say they cancel.) To estimate how many bets you must take into consideration your opponents tendencies (will they call down with less than top pair, with TPWK?; will the flop better bet the turn?... etc) and your position in relation to the flop better (will you be able to trap the field with a check-raise or a raise in LP(if better in EP)?) By adding the average number of bets your going to make on the turn (remember, they're double sized bets) to the pot on the flop you get your implied odds. If this number is better than 8.4-1, you call.

If the flop were for example, Qh6h2d and you had 9d2c you might have to discount the 9h, 2h because either might make someone a flush. Against a large field you'd probably have to completely discount both, but heads-up they might be worth something. Your implied odds in this example aren't as good as in the first because a heart on the river might beat you.

If the flop were QJ2rainbow and the hand is multi-way, I think you have to discount the 9's because they might complete an OESD. Against one or two of players they might be worth most of a full out each; against a very large field maybe half an out each. Against a large field I think the backdoor draw is worth about half an out.


Please critique my analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the main problem with this line of thinking is the fact that you don't take in to account how many cards that could come on the river that damage your hand. If you assign 3 outs to the 3 9s remaining in the deck, you belive that you will wn this pot 100% of the time when you spike the 9. There's no way this is true. I'd be surprised if you won the pot 50% of the time.

Another thing to think about is the action that was required PF and on the flop in order to generate sufficient pot odds for you to draw to a 2-5 outer. The pot would have to be quite large, indicating that you are up against some pretty good hands. Taking a weak draw to a vulnerable hand against opponents holding big hands is dangerous, to say the least.