Knowing your opponents hand... still played poorly?

Xelent · #1 03-30-2005, 01:55 PM

This was in the 5/10 game at party this morning. UTG+1 is the villain and limps. I raise in LP with AK to $45 and villain limp-raises me to $225. He most likely has AA, KK, or QQ so I should fold. For some reason I had too much ego that hand and decided to try and outplay him and called after a lot of thought. Flop comes QQJ and he checks with $777 left. He is new to the table and I have not played with him before. Is it a bad idea to put him all in right here for the $450 in the pot?

PoBoy321 · #2 03-30-2005, 01:59 PM

Not when you put him on QQ.

EDIT: Just to add something useful. I think that his limpreraise/check on this flop screams on strength. Check behind and don't put in another dime unless you have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], the board was Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes on the turn.

Xelent · #3 03-30-2005, 02:12 PM

Well I thought with a limp-raise he had a much greater chance of having AA or KK. I also shouldn't of said he clearly had one of the three hands, but I thought it was most probable.

PoBoy321 · #4 03-30-2005, 02:14 PM

Do you honestly think that AA or KK would check OOP here? I think that any decent, aggressive, thinking player is going to bet this flop 100% of the time. The only hands that I see checking here are way ahead of you and will call if you bet.

Also, do you think that this player is even capable of laying down KK or AA to a push here?

FoxwoodsFiend · #5 03-30-2005, 02:16 PM

If somebody went all-in for almost twice the pot and I'm sitting on an overpair to a paired board, I'm insta-calling. I don't think you could have a more obvious steal attempt than going all-in.

foldem · #6 03-30-2005, 02:18 PM

I don't think putting your opponent all in is a good move here. How often do you expect him to fold AA or KK to your bet? If he has either of these hands you have outs to win or can bluff the turn if he checks again. Otherwise you are drawing dead to his other two most likely holdings QQ and JJ. So checking is clearly the best option.

I think you have a better chance of pulling off a bluff if you check the flop anyway. Isn't that what you would do normally with a flopped monster in this spot?

Huskiez · #7 03-30-2005, 02:25 PM

While you might want to outplay him, I don't think Villain has enough of a stack where you will be able to do that. If he was deeper and your hand was more live against his range of hands, fine. But in this situation I really hate the preflop call.

One other reason I really dislike it is because you don't know how he plays. I think when you two have a feeling for each other's playing styles, it is easier to take a pot away from an opponent.

The flop makes it very likely he has AA or KK (mathematically). He would probably put you on AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK. How would you play a QQ or JJ? Would you push all in right on the flop?

AA probably isn't going anywhere because he will probably call a bet on the flop, and then find himself committed on the turn. Against KK you might be able to wrestle this pot away. However I think an all in looks more like a bluff than a bet that's trying to extract value. I would be more likely to push with an actual QQ or JJ than a bluff. Does he know that though? Who knows. We haven't played with him before.

A scarier bet would be something like 300-350, where he is committed by your bet and knows he is committed. I think KK might muck to that, and you also don't lose all your chips when he does want to play.

However, the worst part of this hand was definitely preflop. Villain successfully got about 25% of his stack in preflop against a hand he very likely dominates.

Kaz The Original · #8 03-30-2005, 02:31 PM

I'm sorry... but can you please explain to me what you were thinking when you called preflop? Where you thinking, well, since I have an ace and a king it's unlikely he's gonna flop a set? What are you hoping to hit? QJ10? You realize you might not even stack him on that flop?

Cornell Fiji · #9 03-30-2005, 03:55 PM

Atrocious preflop call. I don't really like the limp-raise with AK because youre out of position but for mixing it up implications its not terrible.

To do anything but check fold on the flop would be -EV. He isn't limp 3 betting with anything less than JJ is he? You aren't pushing JJ-AA off enough to make any bet correct.

-Steve

Xelent · #10 03-30-2005, 04:25 PM

I agreed that it was a terrible pre-flop call just like I wrote. I was talking about after that. And I guess I wasn't thinking very clearly after the flop either. Thanks for the reply's.

And about the overbet, my thinking at the time was that I was only overbetting with the nuts or close to it up to that point and there was a good chance I had JJ. But afterwards, I realize that it isn't realistic for me to be playing JJ on the flop like that. I would wait till a later street and not just put him all in for no reason like that. As I said before, my thinking in this hand was very clouded.