A fairly common situation...Do you fold?

calmasahinducow · #1 03-30-2005, 12:39 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

UTG bets

Is it a leak when I can't lay down two pair on an obviously made board?

ArturiusX · #2 03-30-2005, 12:42 AM

UTG would bet a worse two pair here, there's no reason to expect a queen.

You still have 4 outs to make a boat on the river, I raise this one, if he 3-bets I call down, if he just calls I bet/raise him again on the river.

aK13 · #3 03-30-2005, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG would bet a worse two pair here, there's no reason to expect a queen.

You still have 4 outs to make a boat on the river, I raise this one, if he 3-bets I call down, if he just calls I bet/raise him again on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably the correct play here, although I don't think I'd have the balls to actually do it.

ArturiusX · #4 03-30-2005, 12:50 AM

There's only a 40% chance that anyone got dealt a queen, let alone if they decided to play it preflop.

You're almost always ahead here, and you can draw when you're behind. Raise that [censored].

Dave G. · #5 03-30-2005, 01:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You still have 4 outs to make a boat on the river, I raise this one, if he 3-bets I call down, if he just calls I bet/raise him again on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line. It's 3-way, so the chance that one of your two opponents was dealt a queen is actually only about 30.8%. If noone has a queen you almost certainly have the best hand, so raise for value.

atnels · #6 03-30-2005, 01:04 AM

I agree with the previous posts - I think you should raise, then call if it comes back to you 3-bet. Even if you're up against a Q, unless villain has spades he may be reluctant to reraise in case the flush comes in on the river. If you are 3-bet, you can just call unimproved on the river. Yes, chances are you're beat but the pot will be big enough to justify a call.

ArturiusX · #7 03-30-2005, 01:19 AM

People make the mistake in micro limits that betting out = a strong hand if they haven't shown aggression on the flop.

I wait for a 3-bet/cap before I believe in monsters.

timprov · #8 03-30-2005, 01:30 AM

It's fairly important what UTG+1 does here.

I'm usually quite raise-happy, but raising here is pretty silly. A one-card broadway is hardly "monsters." It's a pretty clear calldown, though.

PuckNPoker · #9 03-30-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG would bet a worse two pair here, there's no reason to expect a queen.

You still have 4 outs to make a boat on the river, I raise this one, if he 3-bets I call down, if he just calls I bet/raise him again on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

And 3 "hidden" outs of playing the board for half the pot.

string4 · #10 03-30-2005, 04:05 AM

Ok, I gotta ask, just learning...

why would he call 1-5.25 pot odds when his chances of hitting another A or J on the river is 1-10.5? Wouldn't the implied odds of a raise (and possible reraises) remove the option of a raise too? Or is there some factoring of the chances that he is bluffing or semi-bluffing change that or are my medications too strong? =)