was I too aggressive with AKs?

@bsolute_luck · #1 03-29-2005, 05:31 PM

no tricky players really. SB will slow play anything. BB/MP2 cold call all the time and typically will hang on 'til river on any chance/piece of flop. Villain is straight forward.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

looking back, the bet on the turn, i think either he hit his straight or 2 pair. i totally missed it the first time. so i think my raise is too aggressive. studying this hand, i still don't know if raising was wrong or not.

Outs: 12. 1 for Aces (discounted due to possible AJ). 3 Kings. 8 clubs- 1 discounted for the 9, which gives someone a very remote straight flush. Villain could have J9,AJ, or J8 so i can't add any hidden outs from there.

i think it was too aggressive because raising isn't going to fold anyone on this board. anyone with a straight/flush draw has proper odds and if it gets reraised, 3-bets is a lot to pay with only TPTK.- i think i just bet because i hadn't won many hands up to that point and i saw i had TPTK and a very strong flush draw, so i just ducked my head and plowed on.

davelin · #2 03-29-2005, 05:49 PM

This is fine to me, you have enough outs plus number of times you're good to begin with to make this raise in addition to the protection it offers to gutshots and 5-outers.

jaxUp · #3 03-29-2005, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is fine to me, you have enough outs plus number of times you're good to begin with to make this raise in addition to the protection it offers to gutshots and 5-outers.

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oui, d'accord.

Firefly · #4 03-29-2005, 05:54 PM

I'd raise that turn every time. I'd be torn between betting the river or checking behind if UI. With that many players behind you it's probally a good value bet....anyhow, looks good

elbuddha · #5 03-29-2005, 05:57 PM

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Villain could have J9,AJ, or J8 so i can't add any hidden outs from there.

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I don't quite think that's true. If villian has 2 pair, the board pairing the other card gives you top two pair. Just because you don't know what they are doesn't mean they aren't outs, but it does mean that you don't have great implied odds with them because you can't go nuts on the river if the board does pair. Really though, I think hidden outs should be looked at as reasons not to fold rather than reasons to raise.

However, even with only 12 discounted outs you have an equity edge to raise for value if you get enough callers - and that's assuming that you really are behind, which you can't assume 100%. Getting fewer callers if you can fold out gutshots, etc is obviously good for you as well.

So, I make this raise too. But I don't cap it if it comes back to me.

@bsolute_luck · #6 03-29-2005, 06:08 PM

yeah, i'm definitely not capping if it comes back to me. i'll have to think about what you guys said about agreeing to bet.

i don't see exactly how it is protection because i don't see many people folding that wouldn't have already been folding to 1 bet, but i'll work on it.- plus the # of times i get busted with an UI river card is aggrevating [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

anyways, below are the results. i left them in white in case others want to comment on the play. thanks for the feedback.

River: (15.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, SB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 28.50 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 9s Jh (two pair, jacks and nines).
MP2 has 7h Qh (straight, queen high).
Hero has As Ks (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 28.50 BB.

bozlax · #7 03-29-2005, 07:19 PM

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i don't see exactly how it is protection because i don't see many people folding that wouldn't have already been folding to 1 bet, but i'll work on it

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It's "protection" because you're either:

a) getting somebody to fold that may be beating you at the time (not what you're doing, since you're actually raising for value), or

b) getting somebody to make an unprofitable call. In this case, you're not trying to get the flush chasers, since you're chasing the nut flush, you're after the straight-chasers. Say somebody behind you is in with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]; any money you can get them to put in looking for another spade is yours; if you call the bet, they are close to having odds to call looking for the gutshot T (10.5 to 1), but if you raise their odds are 11.5 to 2, or 5 to 1 which is definitely unprofitable drawign to a gutshot.

(Ignore the fact that both the gutshot and the straight filled on the river.)

davelin · #8 03-29-2005, 07:25 PM

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i don't see exactly how it is protection because i don't see many people folding that wouldn't have already been folding to 1 bet

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If SB and BB had a 4- or 5-outer they could call a turn bet with implied odds. When you raise they can't call profitably.