How to play when you're not sure of outs.

DeadRed · #1 03-29-2005, 11:28 AM

It's early, so I have no individual reads, but the table seems passive enough PF for me to come in UTG with my hand.

Paradise Poker 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

A nice flop that leaves me with many questions:
1) Am I currently ahead and hoping for no diamond?
2) Am I currently behind and needing a diamond?
3) Will I come in second in both situations?
4) Is the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] my savior for all this, or the card that has me cursing life?

I raise to push out weak draws, and I find it capped by the time it's back to me. I am pondering the questions above as I call.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Same story as above. Should I slow down here? My guess is I'm along for the ride anyway and the turn doesn't make anyone's hand better than mine if it wasn't already. 

River: (32.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

By now I feel that the pot is so big, I don't need to try to get it capped. I just call down until everyone relaxes. 

Final Pot: 41.50 BB

Am looking for any/all comments on my issues listed above.

KaiShin · #2 03-29-2005, 11:36 AM

If you weren't at the table long enough to develop individual reads, I don't think you can summarize the table texture as "passsive enough to limp suited connectors UTG". We'll take that as it is though.

The flop cap is good. Even though you have the ass end of the straight, it is highly likely you're already ahead, given no PF raise from SB. Even if SB limped with AK you still have a great chance of improving your hand, he's basically freerolling you here. I don't really understand what the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will have you cursing at. Noone's going to give you credit for the SF until you show it to them after capping all streets.

Edit: Oh I see, the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] puts the possibility for a higher SF out there. Don't worry about that. Worry about more common situations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Turn raise is good. Of course you must call after its capped.

You've hit your flush draw, so you just call the river? That makes no sense. You've beaten SB, raise him. Once MP2 raises behind you its likely you're beat but the only option left now is to call.

davelin · #3 03-29-2005, 11:38 AM

When you very likely have the best hand...don't worry about counting outs.

jaxUp · #4 03-29-2005, 11:42 AM

wow, that's a pretty big pot. Here are my thoughts:

the pf limp is sketchy, but you say you had a good read on the table, so I'll trust you there.

flop: It doesn't really matter whether or not you're behind here this time. You will be ahead often enough, or hit a winning flush often enough to justify capping.

Turn: crappy split card, so that sucks. Good raise, you can still trap a K for lots of $$ (they would be right to call).

river: You could probably raise this, as there will be at least 2 others in there, and I think you're good more than 1/3 of the time.

KaiShin · #5 03-29-2005, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When you very likely have the best hand...don't worry about counting outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
This too.

Just ram and jam.

flopwell · #6 03-29-2005, 11:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wow, that's a pretty big pot. Here are my thoughts:

the pf limp is sketchy, but you say you had a good read on the table, so I'll trust you there.

I agree wholeheartedly. And I am raise/calling the river.

flop: It doesn't really matter whether or not you're behind here this time. You will be ahead often enough, or hit a winning flush often enough to justify capping.

Turn: crappy split card, so that sucks. Good raise, you can still trap a K for lots of $$ (they would be right to call).

river: You could probably raise this, as there will be at least 2 others in there, and I think you're good more than 1/3 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

DeadRed · #7 03-29-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When you very likely have the best hand...don't worry about counting outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the counting that is my issue. It's do I need an out? (Maybe MHIG on the flop.) If not, do I want an out? (Maybe one of the lurkers had a better flush.) It is very possible that I have no way of winning this hand. (or maybe on a 1-outer). Knowing all this, how careful should I be?

[ QUOTE ]
river: You could probably raise this, as there will be at least 2 others in there, and I think you're good more than 1/3 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

A great point. Instead of considering the pot size, just look at my final decision. A raise by me puts 3 more bets in the pot. If I win 1/3 of the time, I should raise, If not, just call. When MP2, who was calling the whole way, raises the river, I'm thinking my 3rd nut is no good. Now that I go back, I realize they would have been raising PF with Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Jx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] since I see all the others down to the 8. Not likely.

davelin · #8 03-29-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When you very likely have the best hand...don't worry about counting outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the counting that is my issue. It's do I need an out? (Maybe MHIG on the flop.) If not, do I want an out? (Maybe one of the lurkers had a better flush.) It is very possible that I have no way of winning this hand. (or maybe on a 1-outer). Knowing all this, how careful should I be?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're thinking about this way too much. Your hand is very likely good on the flop and ramming and jamming is correct giving it is a vulnerable but you'll get enough callers to make it profitable on the turn. Plus the small chance that you are behind you do have outs to catch up. So I'd put your equity somewhere like around 80%+ on the flop, go to town. You also need to go to war on the flop (under-rated by all you slowplayers out there) because when a scare card comes, it helps playing your hand then because you've defined it better on the flop.

If a truly scare card comes on the turn or river, evaluate. Neither the turn nor river card would give me that much pause to believe I have a very good chance of being best.

Ringo_Mojo · #9 03-29-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

4) Is the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] my savior for all this, or the card that has me cursing life?


[/ QUOTE ]

Never played on Paradise, do they have a bad-beat promotion? if they do J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] could be your savior no matter what the other guys have.

davelin · #10 03-29-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
4) Is the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] my savior for all this, or the card that has me cursing life?

[/ QUOTE ]

This whole hand plus this line makes me think you have too much monsters-under-the-bed syndrome. What's your Aggression factor curiously?