Leaving money on the table with top set

[Ghazban]

Live 1/2 at Foxwoods ($100 max buyin). I have $326 in MP, Villain is in the SB with ~$300, and maniac in the BB has us both covered.

I get K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and make it $10 to go. SB and BB are the only callers.

Flop ($30): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet $25, SB check-raises to $95, BB folds-- your move?

SB has not checkraised once in the 3 hours he's been at the table. He and I have traded a couple big pots (once when he chased a flush at bad odds, got there, then failed to bet the river-- I checked behind). He's definitely not a good player, but he isn't splashing a lot of chips around either.

Another question-- when a guy hasn't check-raised all day and does it when you have the (current) nuts, what do you put him on?

[MikeL]

Either he is trying to steal it out right, has the nut flush
draw and is semi-bluffing, or he has a lower set.

I don't really want him taking another card for cheap. Any
2x previous bet raise will put you over 50% in, already.
Push and see if he's stupid.

Regards,
Mike L.

[miajag81]

[ QUOTE ]
Any
2x previous bet raise will put you over 50% in, already.
Push and see if he's stupid.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, though calling with TT or QdJd wouldn't make him particularly stupid.

[Los Feliz Slim]

Push. He's probably on a semi-bluff steal attempt, but hopefully he's got a set of tens or fours.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Push. He's probably on a semi-bluff steal attempt, but hopefully he's got a set of tens or fours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guessed he had a set and would put me on a horribly overplayed AA or AK. He hadn't made any other semibluff raises (to my knowledge, anyway) and the total lack of checkraising previous to this point made me think a set was his most likely holding. I've never seen anybody correctly lay down a set in this game (though I did see a guy idiotically lay one down against two total fish overplaying TPNK-- to this day, I still call him 'set of threes' partially to needle him and partially because I can't ever remember his real name) so I hoped I could play a big pot against a guy with one out.

Anyway, he thought a long time and folded, and either he made a phenomenal laydown or he picked a weird time to make a creative (semi-)bluff checkraise.

I don't think I maximized value though. I think making a smaller reraise and then getting it all in on the turn (whatever falls) might have been a more profitable play.

[Logik]

You're hoping he has 44 or JJ
You're somewhat hoping he has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
You're hoping he doesn't have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

If he has 44 or JJ
Hand 1: 94.1751 % [ 00.94 00.00 ] { KsKc }
Hand 2: 05.8249 % [ 00.06 00.00 ] { JJ, 44 }

If he has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hand 1: 70.5051 % [ 00.71 00.00 ] { KsKc }
Hand 2: 29.4949 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { Ad4d }

If he has Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hand 1: 57.8788 % [ 00.58 00.00 ] { KsKc }
Hand 2: 42.1212 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { QdJd }



If you can put him on a lower set or chasing the nut flush, you definately have the odds to call this. If you put him on an outside straight-flush draw, its your choice whether or not to gamble.

I think he's drawing to the nut flush personally, perhaps with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] trying to draw to a free card on the turn when you check to him. Seems like a large check-raise though, so he might be packing the QJ you don't want to see.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can put him on a lower set or chasing the nut flush, you definately have the odds to call this. If you put him on an outside straight-flush draw, its your choice whether or not to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds to call this? I'm ahead!! My choice whether or not to gamble? Are you kidding me? Playing $600 pots in 1/2 where the worst possible situation is where I'm a 58% favorite is heaven.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's drawing to the nut flush personally, perhaps with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] trying to draw to a free card on the turn when you check to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do I check to him when he's in the SB and i'm in MP?

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a large check-raise though, so he might be packing the QJ you don't want to see.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the only hand he'll call my all-in with is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then that is precisely the hand I want him to have. If he'll call with some others, that's even better.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think I maximized value though. I think making a smaller reraise and then getting it all in on the turn (whatever falls) might have been a more profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is pretty bad then maybe, but if you had bumped even min he should call on non paired turn with Axd based of the odds. Seems like you would need about 500 stacks to be able to re-raise and have him not realize he is playing for his stack.

Do you think by making the raise less than all-in it might make him push the flop but your push is viewed as really strong so he'll decide not to gamble with Axd? He has to realize you are coming along.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't think I maximized value though. I think making a smaller reraise and then getting it all in on the turn (whatever falls) might have been a more profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is pretty bad then maybe, but if you had bumped even min he should call on non paired turn with Axd based of the odds. Seems like you would need about 500 stacks to be able to re-raise and have him not realize he is playing for his stack.

Do you think by making the raise less than all-in it might make him push the flop but your push is viewed as really strong so he'll decide not to gamble with Axd? He has to realize you are coming along.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, people in this game don't know what pot-committed is. I learned recently that I could make a lot more money getting all-in on the installment plan (despite being pot-committed) than by pushing in early.

There are also a lot of risk-averse types in this game (there was an article about risk levels in the March internet magazine that is a good read on that topic) and big bets will sometimes scare them out when a slightly smaller bet will bring them in.

An example:
Say I have $500 and my cluefree opponent has $100. If I declare all-in, he has a much greater chance of folding than if I bet $100. I can only speculate that not everybody in this game recognizes that those two bets are exactly the same thing. If I go all-in, I guess he's thinking "Wow, he'll bet $500 on that hand! He must be strong!" but if I only bet $100, it looks more palatable.

[xorbie]

You have to push here. Too many cards kill your action or beat you on the turn to get fancy because you'll both be committed on any reasonable raise.