Is there any way to get away from this hand

DJA · #1 10-15-2002, 12:59 PM

It is pretty early in a NLHE Pokerstars tourney, and I have about T1800... My table is actually full of big stacks with 4 people having more then T3000 pretty early in the tournament. I was just moved to this table, and I don't know my opponents well yet...

Blinds are 50-100...

I open from MP with AKo... raising to T400... everybody folds.

The next hand I open from MP with AKo... raising to T400... the button calls and everyone else folds. He has me covered. The flop comes KKQ, There is T950 in the pot and I have T1300 remaining... What is the play?

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Results...
I checked and the button went all-in... I instantly called. He had QQ and I was drawing pretty slim... Ouch.

Here is my main question though...

Is there any way to get away from this hand? I have never made a lay down this big...

So hypothetically, say you are early in the WSOP final event, and the pot is like T1000 and you have T9000 each... Is there a way to get away from this hand?

Thanks In Advance,

Greg (FossilMan) · #2 10-15-2002, 01:50 PM

There's a big difference between having 1.5x the pot left, and 9x the pot left, in terms of getting away from the hand.

When you checked to this guy, he doesn't need to have anything to bet. He could be drawing stone cold dead but figure you'll fold since you checked (and are thus afraid he has a K). So, when he goes all-in for 1.5x the pot, there is no way for you to intelligently fold.

But, if you and he had 9x the pot, there is now room for more than one decision, and you might get away from the hand without going broke. Not often, but sometimes, mostly if the opponent is tight and predictable.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

DJA · #3 10-15-2002, 02:10 PM

I understand that 9x the pot is much different then 1.5x the pot, but I still think I would have a lot of trouble laying this hand down. If someone bet 9x the pot, it looks like a move even more...

Is this what separates average players from great players? If you read some of Phil Helmuth's articles in Card Player, he makes monster lay downs early in a tournament. The three examples I have of Phil's laydown's are laying down top set which was the stone cold nuts on the flop because he thought his opponent had an open ended straight flush draw...

Also he layed down the open ended straight flush draw against a set (debated a short time ago on the forum)...

Phil even wrote that he made a bad call with the hand that Varkoni knocked him out of the WSOP final with. He was a 1.66:1 favourite in that hand, and he thinks he should have laid it down and waited for a more favourable position. IMO, that was a great call by Helmuth, he just got unlucky. Am I wrong?

Thanks In Advance,

ohkanada · #4 10-15-2002, 02:16 PM

I can't imagine how you would fold AK on a KKQ board. I would call his bet in a second. QQ seems unlikely since he didn't re-raise although not all players re-raise with QQ. KQ seems less likely but if suited it is possible.

Ken Poklitar

DJA · #5 10-15-2002, 02:46 PM

I realize in the online tournament, there is no way I am getting away from this hand... I was more curious / concerned of how you get away from the hand in big stack poker.

thanks,

ohkanada · #6 10-15-2002, 03:13 PM

With big stacks I really think it would depend on your opponent and how the flop bets/raises work.

For example if he bets 500 on the flop and you check-raise 2500 and he re-raises all-in, then you have to know he has a solid piece of the flop and most likley a boat. Any experience you two have had with each other also makes a big difference. If he has never seen you get out of line then your check-raise should scare him. When he re-raises all-in you know that he has a big hand. Is it KQ, QQ or AK? If you know he always re-raise with QQ/AK then it only leaves KQ or a worse K.

Ken Poklitar

Greg (FossilMan) · #7 10-15-2002, 05:35 PM

Sure, if they bet you all-in for 9x the pot (or themselves all-in), it looks like a steal and you probably have to call. But, as Ken states, if you bet 0.5x the pot, get raised to 1.5x or 2x the pot, you know more and MIGHT lay it down here. It would depend upon what you know about him and how he plays you, etc. In most cases you would not intelligently get away from this hand, but you might in some cases.

As for Phil's laydowns, he is simply overestimating his chances at getting his money in better at a later time. For example, even if he's correct that he can wait and do so, what good is that if he's bled away half his stack by that point? He may be getting his money in as a 4:1 favorite instead, but he's doing so just to get back to where he was before, and 20% of the time he'll go broke trying to do only that. If your edge is big enough to be clearly positive, then you should rarely if ever fold just to avoid the risk.

The exceptions to this general rule only occur at bubble time, especially in super-satellites.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Mark Heide · #8 10-15-2002, 08:35 PM

I think the problem here is the size of your stack comparied to the blinds. When you put in a raise of $400 and it gets called, you will have to bet the rest of your stack on the flop.

After you raise, and get one caller, you will have $950 in the pot and only $1400 in chips left.

I think the better way to play at this point is to move in before the flop and pick up the blinds. If you get called you will win almost half the time anyway, except for when he has AA or KK which does not happen that often when you figure it is harder for him to have these pairs when you hold AK.

Now, if your stack was bigger, since you raised preflop, you should make a pot size bet on the flop. You will take down the pot approximately 78% of the time when your opponent holds a pair if he will fold to a bet where he thinks your hand is better than his. I would never give possible free card to a tight player giving him a chance to make a set.

Good Luck

Mark

#9 10-15-2002, 11:47 PM

First... I will not move all-in when the blinds are 50-100 for 1600... That is way too risky IMO and not even close to worth it...

Second, I want this guy to bet a weaker K... I figured I was way ahead on this one, and I was hoping he would take a stab at the pot... It was quite substantial after all.

I was also wondering where you get the 78% number. I don't get where it comes from...

DJA · #10 10-16-2002, 01:26 AM