Level 3 - AK hand

[Scuba Chuck]

($30+3)
Well, since we're talking so much (or little) about level 3 now, who makes this call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

MP2 (t480)
CO (t960)
Hero (t855)
SB (t1865)
BB (t850)
UTG (t2120)
MP1 (t870)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ......

[curtains]

Yes, your raise is from such a steal position, that your opponent could easily be moving allin with AQ,AJ and even AT sometimes.

[microbet]

Definately a close one. I used to fold here all the time, but recently I went through a period of calling it and have mostly found PPs and lost.

If he has PP &lt; KK, you are 44.9% to win.

$EV
call and win = .209
call and lose = 0
fold = .0978

.449 * .209 = .0855

I think villian is most likely to have PP &lt; KK. He could have AT-Q or he could have AA or KK.

It looks like he has doubled up once already. If he had raised allin with QT and sucked out on someone, I think it might be a good call. Otherwise, I think I'm going back to folding here.

[proell]

I fold this one, unless I have a read on the player that tells me he will push with a larger range of hands than expected. I don't want to call off all my chips on a coinflip vs a small pair. I'd come over the top of any raise with this hand, but don't want to call here.

maybe this is too weak. or too tight... or both! But in general I don't like calling off my chips this early.

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, your raise is from such a steal position, that your opponent could easily be moving allin with AQ,AJ and even AT sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

[FishBurger]

I think I would call here. If you pokerstove this and put SB on AKo-AQo, AKs-AJs, and AA-77, then you are a 45-55 dog, but since you've already put in 17% of your stack, you might as well go for it.

[microbet]

Look up. I did the ICM with hero as a 44.9% dog. If you are going to defy ICM at this point you should be more inclined to fold, if you have +ROI.

If you want this to be a call you are going to have to expand your range to include AT and maybe worse, and probably be sure not to add lower PPs.

[I'm not considering $/hr, Lorinda [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]]

[FishBurger]

[ QUOTE ]
Look up. I did the ICM with hero as a 44.9% dog. If you are going to defy ICM at this point you should be more inclined to fold, if you have +ROI.

If you want this to be a call you are going to have to expand your range to include AT and maybe worse, and probably be sure not to add lower PPs.

[I'm not considering $/hr, Lorinda ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I just assumed that since hero had already put in 17% of his stack that a call was in order as only a 45-55 dog. Intuitively, it seems weak to fold AKo here. I guess that's why Doyle calls AK "walking back to Houston [from Vegas]."

[curtains]

The hero shouldn't be a 45% dog on average. Plenty of PartyPoker players would reraise from the blind there without a pocket pair.

[microbet]

Not on my computer, don't want to install pokerstove here, but...

FishBurger got a 45% dog going to AQo, AJs. At 45% the ICM wasn't all that close. How broad do you have to make the range to hit the ICM break even? AT? A9? KQ?