miss a value bet here?

pointcount · #1 03-24-2005, 11:51 PM

Maybe bet/fold would have been a better line on the turn?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

FishHooks · #2 03-25-2005, 01:10 AM

Most cases I dont think so, I mean odds are pretty good he has a spade, i cant see how he could just call on the flop without one, unless he is playing A rag. I think most of the time you are beaten, but the river bet is obviously good.

yellowjack · #3 03-25-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Most cases I dont think so, I mean odds are pretty good he has a spade, i cant see how he could just call on the flop without one, unless he is playing A rag. I think most of the time you are beaten, but the river bet is obviously good.

[/ QUOTE ]

mmbt0ne · #4 03-25-2005, 01:29 AM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
Most cases I dont think so, I mean odds are pretty good he has a spade, i cant see how he could just call on the flop without one, unless he is playing A rag. I think most of the time you are beaten, but the river bet is obviously good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think? We don't know 46 cards. There are only 9 spades left in the deck. Therefore, there is less than a 20% chance, going strictly on math, that villian has a spade.

I bet the turn, and check behind on the river. Don't give the villian a free draw to one of those remaining 9 spades or 3 queens to split the pot. If check raised, throw cards and run away screaming.

milesdyson · #5 03-25-2005, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most cases I dont think so, I mean odds are pretty good he has a spade, i cant see how he could just call on the flop without one, unless he is playing A rag. I think most of the time you are beaten, but the river bet is obviously good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think? We don't know 46 cards. There are only 9 spades left in the deck. Therefore, there is less than a 20% chance, going strictly on math, that villian has a spade.

I bet the turn, and check behind on the river. Don't give the villian a free draw to one of those remaining 9 spades or 3 queens to split the pot. If check raised, throw cards and run away screaming.

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain holds a one card hand?

Chance that he doesn't hold a spade is:

1 - (37/46)(36/45) = ~64%.

He has one or two spades about 36% of the time.

mmbt0ne · #6 03-25-2005, 01:48 AM

Touche. Your math > mine.

However, I stand by betting the turn, and checking the river.

milesdyson · #7 03-25-2005, 01:50 AM

Hehe.

I agree on betting the turn. I'm not so sure a river bet isn't in line, either.

mmbt0ne · #8 03-25-2005, 01:56 AM

hmmm, I could be persuaded to bet the river. A read would definitely help.