#1
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Non-nut four flush w/weak overs... pump the flop?
Button is loose/aggressive (oops, I said passive initially, which was wrong) clown... 61/20/1.3, BB is 64/29/1 and not spectacularly aggressive or fancy (yes, this was a very nice table). Seeing button raise wasn't all too out of character for him with a wide range of hands, and I strongly considered a 3-bet but wussed out and called. My question for you all is, did I miss a bet here (I strongly suspect I did), and if so, what's my line when it gets capped behind me?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, Hero... |
#2
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Re: Non-nut four flush w/weak overs... pump the flop?
Button is a LAG not a LAP. 20% PFR is massive.
3-betting is bad here. You're out of position, so you can't get a free card. If you do three-bet and it's capped, you need to call the turn bet. Obviously bet/raise if you hit your flush. If you spike T or Q, you need to call down to the river. |
#3
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Re: Non-nut four flush w/weak overs... pump the flop?
Hero has equity with his flush draw plus over cards to try to get this capped if he thinks the button will come along for the ride. Especially with a maniac raising, all of the hero's outs could be good. Even though the he can't get the free card, the equity more than makes it worthwhile, especially considering the guy calling is very loose and will probably keep calling if he's made it this far.
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#4
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Re: Non-nut four flush w/weak overs... pump the flop?
[ QUOTE ]
Hero has equity with his flush draw plus over cards to try to get this capped if he thinks the button will come along for the ride. Especially with a maniac raising, all of the hero's outs could be good. Even though the he can't get the free card, the equity more than makes it worthwhile, especially considering the guy calling is very loose and will probably keep calling if he's made it this far. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I had in mind, to an extent. First, Button could have an extremely wide range of hands, and I can't think of many that I can't beat at least with my flush. Sure, I might lose a bundle when we both turn or river flushes, but the number of A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-x and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-x hands he could have pales in comparison to the other, lower equity hands he could be holding. No chances for a made straight on the flop, which also helps. Second, BB has just called two cold on the flop, after calling one bet pre-flop. And look at his numbers! The man's fold button may as well be broken. Sure, like Button he could have a hand that puts me in hot water (bigger sooted spades), but this will by far be the exception here. The prospect of BB calling along to the turn and perhaps beyond means there may be a ton of dead money going in. Those two points: Button's wide range of possible holdings, and BB's apparent propensity to call with the worst of it regardless of the price, both point directly to my action being based on pot equity. As long as I have greater than 33% equity, and I don't see how my number would be less than that, I need to get in as many bets as possible on the flop. In one situation where BB has 66 and button has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], my equity is 52%!! Change that A4 to A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I'm still at 46%. Really as long as nobody has a set or overspades, I'm sitting very pretty. If its capped behind me, I'll still be able to see the river for 1.5 BB (as long as SB doesn't wake up on the turn and start firing), and I believe it would be correct to do so as long as the board didn't pair on the turn. Bottom line: The variance might be hell with this hand if I pump the flop, but ultimately the Sklansky bucks look like they're mine for the taking. Why shy away from that opportunity? |
#5
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Re: Non-nut four flush w/weak overs... pump the flop?
I think overcards considered and the great stats of the raiser, a 3-bet wouldn't be out of line here. The turn and river are fairly straightforward from here whether you get capped or not if you don't hit since you're likely to check-call (little/no folding equity).
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