Lev 2 hand reading

[Apathy]

***** Hand History for Game 1780915999 *****
NL Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:10643817 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Wednesday, March 23, 15:49:00 EDT 2005
Table Table 11246 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: littlefredie ( $1435 )
Seat 2: Cappy88 ( $1955 )
Seat 3: Premo_Butta ( $485 )
Seat 5: anna_3299 ( $620 )
Seat 6: blaydzfsteel ( $1080 )
Seat 7: clemkane ( $980 )
Seat 8: heregoes ( $1535 )
Seat 9: Lancers97 ( $1030 )
Seat 10: Croesus13 ( $880 )
Trny:10643817 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to blaydzfsteel [ 8h 8s ]
Premo_Butta folds.
anna_3299 folds.
blaydzfsteel calls [30].
clemkane folds.
heregoes folds.
Lancers97 folds.
Croesus13 calls [30].
littlefredie calls [15].
Cappy88 raises [60].
blaydzfsteel calls [60].
Croesus13 calls [60].
littlefredie folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 6d, 4d ]
Cappy88 bets [90].
blaydzfsteel calls [90].
Croesus13 calls [90].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
Cappy88 bets [100].
blaydzfsteel folds.
Croesus13 calls [100].
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
Cappy88 checks.
Croesus13 checks.
<font color="white"> </font>

[whynot?]

so 70% probability you folded the winning hand

i'd have put these guys with this betting on a flush/straight draw.

i'd have at least called if not pushed

[Phil Van Sexton]

Cappy raised from BB, made a fairly weak 1/2 pot bet on the flop, then a weak bet on the turn. I'm thinking AK with a diamond.

Croesus called, called, called, and called. I have no clue what he had.

I fold on the flop here. I might be behind a higher PP already, and a lot of draws/overcards could come down by the river. There's still another player left to act behind me on the flop. In addition to the $90 flop bet, I figure it will cost me at least another 200 more to call these guys down to the river. My chances for improvement are minimal (ie a non-diamond 5, so 3 outs). Fold.

After seeing the weak play on the turn and river, maybe 88 was good, but there's no way to know that on the flop.

[Apathy]

Do you think that just because I posted the hand I must have made an incorrect decision (based on the results). I think your advice is pretty bad here. What do you put the OOP PFR on then that makes a draw (the only possible answer is AdKd) why does he bet so small? What does the other person have to call the small flop bet? Note that both of these players (especailly the PFR) are competent 109ers. The PFR is probably a winning player.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
After seeing the weak play on the turn and river, maybe 88 was good, but there's no way to know that on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time I post I'm going to leave out more then just the showdown results as I think it biases some people's thinking as they consider information that shouldn't be available to them during the hand.

I think you give good advice here though, my thoughts on the flop are that I was getting terrific odds and might be up against AdKs or something and the player behind would drop out. When he fires again on the turn, even though it was a weak bet I fold.

[Glintir]

I'm far from a 109er, so I may be way off base, but why call the flop bet? What card can you catch on the turn that's going to keep you in?

Minraise PF, so could be a middle pair, a big hand, or maybe broadways. If he's got a flush, you're not likely to catch up. If it's a middle pair, you're behind to 9s, 10s, 7s, and 6s, hard to catch up there. If it's over cards, he may or may not have the flush draw to go with it. You're ahead but not by much.

I guess I'm thinking either fold, cause the flop isn't that great for you. Or raise and see where you stand.

[The Venetian]

I like the turn fold. I assume you called the flop hoping to get it heads-up and see what the original raiser did on the turn. When the other guy stays in after also cold-calling a min-raise pre-flop, warning bells are going off and you get out. Was this your line?

My gut tells me they both have pocket pairs of the low-to-mid variety. Seeing as the only ones you're ahead of right now are 55, 33, and 22, and it only takes one other one to beat you, I muck without a second thought.

I'll say 55 and TT, both with a diamond. I can't figure out Cappy88's line, though...that's a strange series of bets, given your and the button's responses.

[Glintir]

You're getting 3 to 1 with 3 or possibly 4 outs. (3x 5 + possibly 1x 8.) How is that good odds, or am I missing something?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you give good advice here though, my thoughts on the flop are that I was getting terrific odds and might be up against AdKs or something and the player behind would drop out

[/ QUOTE ]

You got good pot odds, but your effective odds sucked. It's likely to cost a lot more than 90 by the time this hand is finished.

The 2c on the turn was almost a perfect card, and you still folded on the turn. This means you should've folded on the flop.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Was this your line?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it was.

What if I told you guys that Cappy can ONLY have AA,KK,QQ,*JJ*,AK,*AQ* based on his PF play

*maybe*