Is it worth it to draw????

Fat Nicky · #1 03-23-2005, 03:43 PM

No read on the villain at the time of the hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ????

Comments on the flop and turn please...

runa · #2 03-23-2005, 03:57 PM

If we were to assume that the SB's raising standards are not overly loose we might put him on a range AA-TT, AK. That would give:

3 AA, 1 KK, 6 AK for you to be drawing dead.
3 QQ, 3 JJ, 6 TT to give you bd flush and gshot straight FTW.

5.5 outs with 45% chance of drawing dead, I'd say its probably a fold. I wouldn't mind so much if it wasn't 3-bet PF, perhaps he's a loose raiser, or you were in steal position and thus maybe there's some chance he's on a re-steal which would open up the range of hands he's playing, but here it seems ok to drop it on the flop.

If the situation were different and perhaps you had a read that would give you the equity to continue, then I think the turn card helped somewhat, giving you now 13 outs FTW and calling with 6.5:1 seems easy. Thoughts?

einbert · #3 03-23-2005, 04:03 PM

This is a blind steal type situation, SB doesn't necessarily have a premium hand. I would 3-bet in that spot with 77+, KQo+ and A9o+.

You have 12 outs to almost certainly the best hand, and you might have another 6. Calling when you are drawing dead only costs you 1BB, but folding when you are drawing live costs you more than that.

I'm seeing the river here for sure, and I'm probably calling a river bet if a Q or J comes off.

CallMeIshmael · #4 03-23-2005, 04:05 PM

MP3 isnt the button, but he is getting to steal territory.

Add to this that solid players are 3-betting far more often than calling here, and I think your 3-betting standards are too tight.

SeaEagle · #5 03-23-2005, 04:31 PM

I would fold the flop.

On the surface you have 4 solid outs plus some runner runner posibilities and getting 10-1 odds. But there are 15 cards (9 clubs not counting the A, 3 Qs, 3 Js) that make you have to put in at least one more big bet on the turn as an underdog, and even if you catch a 10 you have to be careful since many of the hands that someone will 3-bet with already have you drawing dead.

Call the turn. And (unfortunately) the pot is big enough that you probably call the river if you catch anything at all.

ErrantNight · #6 03-23-2005, 04:52 PM

if you're calling the flop you're seeing the river when you pick up the flush draw.

private joker · #7 03-23-2005, 05:01 PM

You're getting odds to call the flop for your gutshot, and you're getting odds to call the turn for your flush draw and gutshot. If you whiff again on the river and he fires one more time, you can let go. He won't be betting a worse hand than Q-high, for fear that you've got some middle pair you want to see a showdown with. I think his 3-betting standards include pairs, aces, and kings often enough for the river to be a safe fold if you miss your draw. I would call if a Q or J hit, but I'm happier with a T or club, obviously.

Aces_up07 · #8 03-23-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call the flop for your gutshot, and you're getting odds to call the turn for your flush draw and gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he really? he needs 11.75-1 odds to take one off for the gutshot, unless I'm calculating the odds wrong (47 unseen/4 that give you gutshot), with 9 SB bets in the pot + 1 which was bet, he's getting 10-1.

Even if he needs only 10-1 for a pure gutshot, then don't you factor in the fact that he may be drawing dead to a boat already, and that any set or two pair has redraws, thus killing your odds?

KaiShin · #9 03-23-2005, 05:20 PM

The flop call is really thin. Without the BDFD I'd automuck it.

You must continue on the turn, though.

einbert · #10 03-23-2005, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call the flop for your gutshot, and you're getting odds to call the turn for your flush draw and gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he really? he needs 11.75-1 odds to take one off for the gutshot, unless I'm calculating the odds wrong (47 unseen/4 that give you gutshot), with 9 SB bets in the pot + 1 which was bet, he's getting 10-1.

Even if he needs only 10-1 for a pure gutshot, then don't you factor in the fact that he may be drawing dead to a boat already, and that any set or two pair has redraws, thus killing your odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

He also has a BDFD which is worth another 1.5 outs.

I think people are definitely overestimating the amount of time hero is drawing dead on this flop. I'd say it's negligible, 5% of the time or less.

Code:<hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

69,300 games 0.078 secs 888,461 games/sec

Board: Ac Kd Ks
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.6847 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { QcJc }
Hand 2: 77.3153 % [ 00.76 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo, KQo }</pre><hr />

So according to pokerstove with >20% equity we could profitably call this flop getting only 4 to 1. 10 to 1 is hugely sufficient, and folding is a pretty substantial mistake in my opinion.

EDIT: Another thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, we beat any pocket pair <QQ if an A comes off on the river.