6 levels of Sicilian Reasoning in Poker

[SeattleJake]

6 levels of Sicilian Reasoning in Poker

(Borrowed from Iocaine Powder, the computer Ro-Sham-Bo champion.)

P1 – What do you think your opponent has.
P2 – What do you think your opponent thinks you have.
P3 – What do you think your opponent thinks you think he has.
P'1 – What don't you think your opponent has.
P'2 – What don't you think your opponent thinks you have.
P'3 – What don't you think your opponent thinks you think he has.

Look at each of these over the last 30 hands your opponent has shown down (maybe the last 10 they've shown down against you), and see which one is the better predictor.

I do not think a fourth ply of reasoning is necessary, but I do not have the evidence to prove it. Surely this would be sufficient at smaller stakes, but adding a fourth ply as the stakes got higher could not hurt.

Example: P'1 70%, your opponent has consistently shown first level thinking, but has played most of their hands wrong (i.e. incorrect first level thinking).

It would be great if Poker Tracker would add this information...