TPGK way out of position -- value bet this river???

MisterKing · #1 03-22-2005, 03:23 AM

Button is a complete clown, 71/3/1, and UTG is pretty rockish -- 14/4/2. Both have samples of ~200 hands, FWIW.

My main question has to do with the river action -- what are you doing here, and if you're value betting, what's your plan if you get raised? While I was reviewing the hand, the possibility of a pre-flop raise came to mind as well. Anyone takeing a shot there?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 6 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets...

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

einbert · #2 03-22-2005, 03:25 AM

Yes, there's absolutely no reason not to.

Given those stats I would fold to a raise from either of them. Most of the time here one is calling you with a worse hand and the other is folding.

To the PFR idea: I much prefer checking, your equity edge is miniscule if present and keeping the pot smaller makes the other players make more mistakes when you hit top pair.

TripleH68 · #3 03-22-2005, 03:30 AM

I check the option preflop. Definitely bet the river.

UTG played it like a draw, maybe backdoor flush draw picked up on the turn. AT or something.

mantasm · #4 03-22-2005, 03:31 AM

Bet and fold to a raise from the rock, call a raise from the clown.

I don't like a raise preflop. You're hands not that good, especially with a tight UTG limper.

ThePenguin · #5 03-22-2005, 05:51 AM

No pre-flop raise... that would be bad. But absolutely, bet this river. I don't see any reason not too

Klepton · #6 03-22-2005, 05:58 AM

good value bet, fold if either of them raised...

i'm guessing the rock was so weak tight that he didn't raise his flush on the turn, fearing both would fold

spiff21 · #7 03-22-2005, 06:16 AM

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i'm guessing the rock was so weak tight that he didn't raise his flush on the turn, fearing both would fold

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How can that be weak tight? I would play it like that any day - especially because im in middle position.

mantasm · #8 03-22-2005, 06:39 AM

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i'm guessing the rock was so weak tight that he didn't raise his flush on the turn, fearing both would fold

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How can that be weak tight? I would play it like that any day - especially because im in middle position.

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A fourth diamond will kill your action and a higher diamond has a redraw to a better flush.

spiff21 · #9 03-22-2005, 06:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
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i'm guessing the rock was so weak tight that he didn't raise his flush on the turn, fearing both would fold

[/ QUOTE ]

How can that be weak tight? I would play it like that any day - especially because im in middle position.

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A fourth diamond will kill your action and a higher diamond has a redraw to a better flush.

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Perhaps. I dont find it too common that versus two limpers a pocket hand containing a higher diamond is that likely. A fourth diamond doesnt come on the river too often either. People folding to turn raise when three to a flush comes is very likely though. Am I gambling too much?

MisterKing · #10 03-22-2005, 01:06 PM

UTG folded, button called and MHIG. Thanks for the input guys -- my plan was the same as most of yours, value bet and fold to a raise from UTG/call one from button. I've been checking this river down in the past, and I think I've been missing a LOT of bets as a result.

Also, any concern about a made flush is just nonsense in my view. Look at UTG's aggression again and tell me he's flat-calling a made flush on 4th street with a calling station idiot behind him that will likely call two cold with any part of the board. No way. He may have me outkicked, or he may have something else I don't like, but the flush wasn't really a concern.