I suck HU - push every hand? (warning: somewhat whiny)

dfscott · #1 03-19-2005, 12:34 AM

I seem to remember reading somewhere that the best HU player versus a monkey that pushes every hand can't expect to have more than a 55-45 over the monkey.

Well, I'm pwn3d by that monkey. After 200 SnGs, my finish distribution (1st:2nd:3rd) is 15:38:27, or 19%:48%:34%.

So when I get heads-up, I lose about 70% of the time. If I push every hand, I should theoretically lose only 55% of the time. I'm considering an experiment to do this for about 100 SnGs just to see what happens. Has anyone here tried this before and if so, what were your results?

(In retrospect, I'm thinking that 53 HU contests probably isn't significant, but I would still expect to be somewhere in the neighborhood of at least 50-50.)

eastbay · #2 03-19-2005, 12:42 AM

Hint: that result is for even starting stacks.

As usual, the first thing to look at is not your HU win/lose record, but how your stack looked when you got it HU. If you're coming in short all the time, it doesn't matter how great you are HU, you're not going to win half of them. This indicates that you need to work on your ITM and maybe bubble play, so that you can get it HU at least even if not with the big stack.

eastbay

dfscott · #3 03-19-2005, 01:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As usual, the first thing to look at is not your HU win/lose record, but how your stack looked when you got it HU. If you're coming in short all the time, it doesn't matter how great you are HU, you're not going to win half of them. This indicates that you need to work on your ITM and maybe bubble play, so that you can get it HU at least even if not with the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You nailed it. Just to see, I took a look at my last 10 HU contests. On average, I entered HU play with 31% of the chips -- worse than a 1:2 deficit in most cases. Only one time did I actually have a chip lead, and it was only 10%.

I think I try so hard to limp into the money, that I don't get aggressive once I'm there. Time to start analyzing my 3-handed play...

ilya · #4 03-19-2005, 01:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Time to start analyzing my 3-handed play...

[/ QUOTE ]

As I'm fond of saying...

"Start with "APESHIT" and work back from there."

eastbay · #5 03-19-2005, 01:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As usual, the first thing to look at is not your HU win/lose record, but how your stack looked when you got it HU. If you're coming in short all the time, it doesn't matter how great you are HU, you're not going to win half of them. This indicates that you need to work on your ITM and maybe bubble play, so that you can get it HU at least even if not with the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You nailed it. Just to see, I took a look at my last 10 HU contests. On average, I entered HU play with 31% of the chips -- worse than a 1:2 deficit in most cases. Only one time did I actually have a chip lead, and it was only 10%.

I think I try so hard to limp into the money, that I don't get aggressive once I'm there. Time to start analyzing my 3-handed play...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're the dfscott with a copy of my program, right? Set up some pushing scenarios 4-handed that seem close, then try a similar scenario 3-handed. Look at the difference. You will quickly see the correct adjustment for ITM play.

eastbay

Slim Pickens · #6 03-19-2005, 02:17 AM

The player at the 11's, where I believe we both play, suck. They are, taken as a group, the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. I'd guess at least 1/3 of them fall into that blue area on the maniac defense surface, so get out the snowshovel and PUSH!

Someday I'm going to get around to the analysis of my bubble an HU play over about 80 tournaments that got that far. I usually go in with fewer chips than average, yet my finish distribution is fairly flat. I'll see if this is luck, or if it's got something to do with situational PUSHing.

FWIW, I push 55% of my SB hands 2-handed.

Slim

dfscott · #7 03-19-2005, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I push 55% of my SB hands 2-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I push a lot as well, basically any pair, AXs, A4o, KXs, K9o, Q4s, Q9o, J5s, J9o, T6s, T8o, any suited connector bigger than 43s. I'll reraise calls, or min-raises of my BB with these as well.

However, I'm not as sure about calling. I generally will call with 55+, A7+, BJ hands, etc. Maybe that's too tight?

john_ · #8 03-19-2005, 12:56 PM

Do you just base what you push / call with on what the hand is?

Try being tighter the closer your chips are to even and inversely looser when your chips are further away from even.

Example: Small blind all ins and you have A6o and you are even on chips. It's a lot easier to make this call if you or your opponent only had a 4th of the chips.

dfscott · #9 03-19-2005, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you just base what you push / call with on what the hand is?

Try being tighter the closer your chips are to even and inversely looser when your chips are further away from even.

Example: Small blind all ins and you have A6o and you are even on chips. It's a lot easier to make this call if you or your opponent only had a 4th of the chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a bad habit of forgetting watch the stacks, born of years of limit play, I guess. I'm trying to get better...

eastbay · #10 03-19-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you just base what you push / call with on what the hand is?

Try being tighter the closer your chips are to even and inversely looser when your chips are further away from even.

Example: Small blind all ins and you have A6o and you are even on chips. It's a lot easier to make this call if you or your opponent only had a 4th of the chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a bad habit of forgetting watch the stacks, born of years of limit play, I guess. I'm trying to get better...

[/ QUOTE ]

My sentiments on this are nicely summed up in your avatar. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

eastbay