Opposite Betting Theory

Hi all. I just wanted to throw an idea out there and see what everyone thinks. I started following a theory I call the opposite theory. Knowing I can not professionally handicap games and that almost all sports bettors lose in the long run, I decided to just bet the opposite of what I originally pick. I am testing it by betting the same amount on almost every NFL game. Does anyone see any flaws with this thinking? To me it seems like I will easily hit 53 to 55% winners over the long term. But no system is flawless so please pick it apart. My results for weeks 2 to 4 are 20 wins and 13 losses, (60.6%win) and +6.37 betting units. These results are probally just related to short term luck. I only bet using the point spread, and my bet size varies a little bit depending on the juice. Good Luck

Kinish100

[Teddy]

There are several problems with a system like this in the long run..

First of all, I think that it would be nearly impossible for a handicapper to properly judge the games knowing that in the end they will be putting their money exactly where their mouth is not.. This is a major physcological problem with your proposed system and will certainly affect your initial decisions unconsiously.. This does not even take into account the fairly likely possiblity that you will go on a short term losing streak and then start believing that you can beat the game straight up and abandon the system entirely..

At the end of the day, there is no difference between picking a winner, and picking a loser.. Any person who could consistently pick either would automatically become a winner in the long run (assuming they recognized their ability)

This is a total shot in the dark, but I assume that a system like this would work well initially, while you are still learning about handicapping and getting a feel for sports betting, but would start losing as you become more into sports betting and are following football more closely (which will certainly happen if you start out winning)..

Also, the different bet sizes causes a huge problem because I find it difficult to believe that you would bet more/less on a given game since you are betting the opposite of your intuition.. Would you bet more or less against a team you thought was a sure thing??

If you are just in it for some fun, it can't hurt, but I recommend playing your own picks in the long run..

Thank you for your thoughts. You made many good points and I especially liked your ideas on my unconsious thinking being affected. I never thought of that before, it is definetly a problem with the system that I doubt can be fixed.

I would just like to clear up a few things. I am not a handicapper (I spend most of my time on poker). I spend just a few minutes making my original picks. These are based on looking at teams records and previous game scores (no indepth analysis at all) and my own thoughts of teams are based from watching sports center when I have a chance to watch it for a few minutes. I don't watch any games. I plan to stick to this system no matter what, even if my original picks start winning. Although I know this is easier said than done.

Also I was not clear on my bet size. I was trying to explain that my flat betting is just a little off. I bet each game to win $100. So if the juice is -109 I risk 109 to win 100. But if it is -103 I risk 103 to win 100. So my bets really only range from 100 to 110.
I doubt these facts would add validity to the system but thought I'd throw them out there. If anyone is interested to see the picks and see this system in action from week to week write back if interested and I will post them weekly.

Kinish100

[scalf]

[img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img] i hope ya post em with your rational of why you bet; even if against your "first thoughts" ..fgl [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

[mikelow]

After this weekend, I'll try it! I actually think there is a place for this, provided it's not overdone. It should be done occasionally. In my mind, you have to make selections as you are picking winners. That's the way it will work.

It might work in the NHL. [img]/forums/images/icons/cool.gif[/img]

It might work. Bet Anaheim as they will certainly be losers againt the tWINS TONITE AND FOR THE SERIES

[Wildbill]

If you are really interested in doing something like this, might I give you an even better suggestion? Just find a friend that loves to pick the games, but you know is a moron at it. A typical Joe Public type bettor. Tell him you give up on this football betting, but crave the action so you are just going to follow his picks all year. If he has losing weeks tell him don't worry, he's due for a hot week. The few times he has winning weeks, really stroke his ego and make him feel like a King and he is almost certain to fall on his face shortly thereafter. Never let him onto what you are doing, it will do exactly what people say here, it will cloud his judgement. EVERYONE that bets on sports has a buddy like this. If you are one of the 3 people around without one, just go frequent a local sports bar or poker room. Then you will have 10 friends like that in an hour. These guys are gold mines. If you get them to all like one side, I wouldn't be surprised if you were 60% betting against that side. I am not kidding, I am sure there are a dozen people on this board that could vouch that it is true, we all have a friend that has no clue who to pick and always sides with teams because he "saw them play once" or because "he heard someone was hurt" and he makes consistent mistakes because of such lazy man thinking. You will make plenty of money and not have to worry so much about yourself and how to handle your theory of picking on or against yourself, and then the personal aspects of regret should you make the wrong decision on what to back. Just go against a loser you know and it will all be taken care of.

[vegasone]

[img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img] hey, i resemble those morons [img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]

[ray holmes]

That's good advice WildBill. Although a few years ago I played baseball against a guy who had NEVER won more than 2 weeks in a row. Well, you know what happened. After making a nice profit for about 3 weeks, he went on a winning streak and won nearly every day for the rest of the season! Fortunately, I backed up after I blew my initial win.