Did I do all I could here?

blackaces13 · #1 03-18-2005, 06:24 PM

I was wondering if this would be a case of waiting for the turn to raise since a flop raise, or re-raise, is not likely to get anyone out and by doing so I allow everyone to check/call me for one bet on the turn.

Reads are unimportant on this hand IMO. Needless to say the table was extremely loose and played poorly post flop.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG caps, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (20.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: (25.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: 27.50 BB

My thoughts on the flop were that I could face some players with calling 2 or 3 bets cold and they might fold for that. If not then I'm getting a lot of money into the pot with the probable best hand and no guarantee of being able to better elminate players on the turn anyway because a) I may not get lead into or b) people who won't fold for 2 bets on the flop may not fold for 2 bets on the turn either considering the pot size and preflop action..

Redd · #2 03-18-2005, 07:22 PM

IMO this is a good opportunity to wait until the turn. Lots of scary cards can hit that'll cripple your equity, and your 3-bet isn't going to do much for protection. But I'm a newb, so lets wait to hear what everone else thinks.

Catt · #3 03-18-2005, 08:11 PM

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I was wondering if this would be a case of waiting for the turn to raise since a flop raise, or re-raise, is not likely to get anyone out and by doing so I allow everyone to check/call me for one bet on the turn.

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I think you need a good reason to wait until the turn if you have an equity advantage. If your advantage is small, then there may be a smallish variety of reasons to wait. If your equity advantage is large, you really need a compelling reason to wait.

I think you have a strong equity advantage on this flop -- the only thing scary is, on the turn, a paired board or another heart, and then you shouldn't crawl into a shell if either happened to come (no overcards are scary). In addition, the pot is 32 SBs when it comes to you -- whether you call or raise, you barely move the needle in terms of odds for others on the flop or turn. Even if you just call, most of your opponents are going to be getting ~10:1 on the turn, even if it is bet-raised in front of them. There is no way to protect your hand; just bet for value and continue betting for value until you are convinced (beyond a shadow of a doubt) that you are beat.

I think this is one of those hands that you're riding to the river and likely pouring in bets along the way (given the way the board developed and your opponents' action) and you just have to grit your teeth and hope your hand holds up on the end. Win and your BR is greatly enhanced; lose and you're pissed. That's poker.

Aaron W. · #4 03-18-2005, 08:35 PM

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I was wondering if this would be a case of waiting for the turn to raise since a flop raise, or re-raise, is not likely to get anyone out and by doing so I allow everyone to check/call me for one bet on the turn.

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SSH p.165 - "When the pot is already so big, protecting your hand on the turn is more important than raising for value on the flop. If the pot is extremely large, forgo a flop raise IF doing so increases the chance you will be bet into on the turn." (Italics are Ed's, bold caps are mine). You might also want to read the footnote and the bottom of the page.

The hand described is pretty close to yours. The pot is absurdly large on the flop. In your case, there were even callers between you and the initial bettor/raiser. Nobody is going to have pot odds problems if they chase their hands if you raise (and this might even be true on the turn since there are SO MANY players still involved). If you manage to avoid a straight card and a flush card on the turn, you'll be much happier throwing in that raise and making everyone pay the two big bets instead of just one.

SteveL91 · #5 03-18-2005, 08:39 PM

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In addition, the pot is 32 SBs when it comes to you -- whether you call or raise, you barely move the needle in terms of odds for others on the flop or turn. Even if you just call, most of your opponents are going to be getting ~10:1 on the turn, even if it is bet-raised in front of them. There is no way to protect your hand; just bet for value and continue betting for value until you are convinced (beyond a shadow of a doubt) that you are beat.

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Personally, I think the problem with this thinking is that it's too short-sighted. Yes, the original poster has a huge equity edge on the flop, but giving opponents a justifiable reason (odds/implied odds) to suckout on you isn't the best way to approach the hand, in my opinion.

I think this hand is a picture-perfect example of waiting until the turn to both cripple pot odds and push a larger equity edge. If you could feel confident that the same action would occur on the turn as on the flop (the bet and raise from early position players), then I think there may be some merit in 3-betting the flop. But, I think in most instances, you're going to get them to check to you... which is fine if you're looking to try and get a free card for a draw, but not when you're trying to destroy the pot odds.

Just my opinion,
Steve

Catt · #6 03-18-2005, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SSH p.165 - "When the pot is already so big, protecting your hand on the turn is more important than raising for value on the flop. If the pot is extremely large, forgo a flop raise IF doing so increases the chance you will be bet into on the turn." (Italics are Ed's, bold caps are mine). You might also want to read the footnote and the bottom of the page.

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I like this concept -- but I don't think it necessarily applies to this hand. This pot is absurdly large -- you can't even protect on the turn except for two-outers. And I'm not convinced that a flop 3-bet induces calls on the flops and checks to Hero on the turn -- obviously it did in this hand, but in a pot this size, with the aggression already shown from EP, and the coldcalls in MP, I am frankly very surprised that this turn played out as it did. Raising the flop is, IMHO, way more likely to produce a cap and an EP bet on the turn. It didn't happen here, but I think it is far more likely thatn what actually happened. Getting multiple bets in on the turn or river is better than on the flop, of course, but I don't think it is reasonable to assume that a 3-bet on this flop likely induces check-call mode on the field (the way it did in this instance).

Catt · #7 03-18-2005, 09:31 PM

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Just my opinion . . .

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Your opinion is as valuable as any other's, so please don't be shy about expressing it.

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. . . I think this hand is a picture-perfect example of waiting until the turn to both cripple pot odds and push a larger equity edge. If you could feel confident that the same action would occur on the turn as on the flop (the bet and raise from early position players), then I think there may be some merit in 3-betting the flop. But, I think in most instances, you're going to get them to check to you... which is fine if you're looking to try and get a free card for a draw, but not when you're trying to destroy the pot odds.

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I disagree. Hero's hand is not terribly vulnerable on the flop. His equity edge is unlikely to change so dramatically from flop to turn. If he had TT it is a different circumstance.

There's almost nothing you can do to harm others' pot odds on the turn. Let's assume you just call the 2 cold on the flop and (i) everyone who hasn't put money in on the flop folds, and (ii) everyone who has put one bet in simply calls the raise instead of 3-betting: in this case the turn comes with a pot size of 17.5 big bets. If UTG leads again, it presents almost 20:1 to MP1 and if MP1 raises, it presents better than 10:1 to everyone behind MP1. If UTG checks to the flop-raiser MP1, it presents pot odds of like 18:1 to everyone behind. There is no way to protect your hand in these circumstances -- all you can rely on is the psychological effect of facing 2 BBs cold instead of 2 SBs cold -- the pot odds don't affect all that many hands. You will pretty much never "cripple" the pot odds offered to any player.

GrunchCan · #8 03-18-2005, 09:44 PM

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IMO this is a good opportunity to wait until the turn.

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No, this isn't the time to use the wait-for-turn protection raise. There are 2 reasons.

First reason, in 2 parts. If you wait for the turn to raise, the likely turn bettor (MP1) has 2 players that will probably call before you get the opportunity to raise, so you fail to protect your hand from them. Second part, even when you do raise, you will be facing the first coldcaller with around 2:21, which are very good odds. Very weak hands would be right to call this bet.

Second reason, your hand is very strong on this flop. You can expect to win this pot well over half the time, so you should bet getting as much value in this pot as possible. Your biggest competition to this pot is a flush draw, and neither can you nor should you try to protect yourself from him. He's your companion to the river.

Since you cannot effectively protect your hand on any street, and you have such a large equity edge that you probably shouldn't even if you could, you should raise at every opportunity for value.

blackaces13 · #9 03-18-2005, 10:19 PM

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Second reason, your hand is very strong on this flop. You can expect to win this pot well over half the time, so you should bet getting as much value in this pot as possible.

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Well I think this is the issue. Can I get MORE money into the pot by waiting until the turn to raise becaue it will encourage an ep player to lead into me as opposed to everyone checking and calling? I think this is a very difficult question to answer. I don't have to get them to FOLD with my turn raise for it to be the correct move. If I can fatten the pot even more with this move then with a flop raise then I think its the better play regardless of its "field thinning" effect.

Also, there is the possibility of facing players with 2 bets cold on the turn. Will they fold weak draws getting the 10:1 I can give them as a best case scenario? Well as Catt said they probably shouldn't since almost any draw is worth calling at that price. But will they is another question entirely. Maybe that middle pair will fold getting 10:1 on this turn figuring there is a good chance he's drawing dead, I might if I had middle pair here.

If anyone wants the results let me know. MP1's hand makes for some interesting debate IMO as to whether or not I could have gotten him out if I played differently.

SteveL91 · #10 03-18-2005, 10:27 PM

Woops. I think you're right. I should have counted everything out better. Also, now that I review the hand, Hero's position relative to the likely bettor on the turn is such that you won't be facing most of the field with two cold. Sorry about that. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]