Really close final table decision. Party $100

ThrillFactor · #1 03-17-2005, 03:52 PM

Last night's Party $100+9, down to 6.

6th pays $1700, 5th pays $2500

I am 5th in chips (4th place stack is nearly double mine), folded to me on the button with the 50/50 hand Q7o. BB is short stack with only 2xBB before posting. I have slightly over 3BB. SB has 6BB but understands the ramifications (sp.) of playing in this spot and I'm pretty sure he will stay out without a very powerful hand.

Obviously, if I don't play here I have only 3 more hands before the blinds hit me and I can't make anyone fold.

Push here or hope someone else takes shorty out in the next few hands?

Obviously he should call with any 2, so I guess that means I'm in a flip with him as to who has the best hand.

As always, playing to win, but I wouldn't turn down the extra $800 if someone offered it to me. The $800 has no significant effect on my roll, however.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (6 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t16880)
UTG (t176198)
MP (t66732)
CO (t92949)
Hero (t26235)
SB (t51006)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t26235 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t8880 (All-In).

Flop: (t47115) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t47115) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t47115) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t47115

Potowame · #2 03-17-2005, 04:02 PM

What your feelings on the SB? Would he push about any thing if you fold, or is he the type that would fold the blind to the BB?

I could see FE against a larger stack , but he is going to call with any two. You are basically like you said a 50/50 to a random hand. If you think the SB would take advantage of this and push if you fold, I might be inclined to fold. Best case senerio, SB pushes and beats BB. Moving you up one spot and giving you the ablity to steal in one of the next three hands.

adanthar · #3 03-17-2005, 04:06 PM

You've gotta figure SB will push the top 65%+ if you fold. I think I'd let him do it.

ThrillFactor · #4 03-17-2005, 04:10 PM

I had been with SB for the last 3 tables and he seemed to know his way around in this territory. He would know that BB has to call with any 2 so I think he'd be selective. SB knows he can wait for at least one of us to bust before making another move.

That said, there's always the chance that my push made him fold a better hand that he would have pushed with himself.

But while putting together my original post, I think I answered my own question. If I'm playing for a top 3 finish, I probably won't get a better opportunity to gain chips in the next 3 hands.

I also just put together a quick EV calc of my options and they worked out to be nearly identical in $$$ expectation. So might as well play to win.

schwza · #5 03-17-2005, 04:16 PM

yeah, i'd fold.

if you get a little lucky and SB folds and BB is a non-idiot and calls, you play a 50-50 for 2x with SB's .5x thrown in too. that's not even that good. and that's the best case. if the SB calls, you're going to be hating life (and if i were him, i'd be calling pretty light).

whereas you get a shot at moving up $800 without risking your own stack if you fold. if SB actually folds, then you've got 3x and the BB has 2.5x, enough that you can steal from him in the SB next hand.

it would help a little to know what 4th paid too.

schwza · #6 03-17-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But while putting together my original post, I think I answered my own question. If I'm playing for a top 3 finish, I probably won't get a better opportunity to gain chips in the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree. i think pushing here may be -chipEV. if Q7 is 50/50 against a random hand, when SB folds and BB calls, you are putting in 2x to win 4.5, so you have a net +.25x gain. i haven't looked at math or anything, but i think this is more than offset by the possibility of the SB waking up with a big hand and you winding up in a -chipEV spot, not to mention the tourney implications or busting before the BB (if he folds after a SB call, which he may or may not do).

ThrillFactor · #7 03-17-2005, 09:05 PM

I'm going to make some assumptions initially to simplify the math, then we'll go back and factor in the reverse to analyze effects.

1) The SB always folds. I know this won't be the case, but we'll deal with this later.
2) The BB always calls. Again, not always (I actually will go into detail about this later).
3) We'll ignore 1st-3rd place money implications for now.

I assigned myself the following probabilities for finishing:

I FOLD

6th - 40%
5th - 50%
4th - 10%

Payouts are $1700, $2500, and $3300 respectively.

So folding nets a cashEV of $2260.

PUSH AND LOSE

100% - 6th

cashEV $1700

PUSH AND WIN

60% - 5th
40% - 4th

cashEV $2820

We're dealing with a 50/50 shot of winning if called so net cashEV for pushing $2260

I swear I didn't doctor these numbers.

So if both pushing and folding net the same cashEV, the correct play then, of course, is to push and attempt to accumulate chips.

Now let's consider the assumptions made earlier.

1) The SB will wake up with a hand a fair amount of the time. When he does, I'm in big trouble. If this happens 25% of the time and when it does I'm a 2:1 dog, some VERY rough calcs put me at a cashEV of $1800-1900. Not good.

2) The BB may fold. This is very interesting. Although everyone here knows that he cannot possibly fold in this situation, he might not know that. An orbit before I watched in disbelief as he (with a 32K stack at the time) minraised from the CO for 16K on a steal then fold to a big-stack push from the blinds. One of the 2+2 cheering section promptly gave him a "worst fold ever" in the chat box. So folding was certainly a possibility for him. I didn't mention this fact earlier b/c I didn't want to bias anyone's answer or get a "wishful thinking" kinda response. At the moment in question I gave him an honest 20% chance of folding. Result: cashEV of pushing = +

and 3) Obviously knocking BB out here and nearly doubling up not only increases my chances at finishing 4th, but greatly increases my chances at a top 3. How much? I don't care to do the math, but quite certainly cashEV of pushing = +++ in this respect.

I think this whole exercise shows just how close this decision really is. But I do believe it also shows that pushing is the correct play. I am absolutely open to comments and criticisms of the various probabilities I assigned for certain situations, and hope to get a good discussion going. If your opinion differs, please lemme have it. I am quite sure that at some point in the relatively near future I'll be in the same situation and have to make the same sort of decision. Hopefully, next time I'll be a little more informed and not just going on my gut instinct.

Flame away...