Way too loose on turn, or correct implied odds?

William Wilson · #1 03-16-2005, 09:48 PM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO folds, Button raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 24.25 BB

thesharpie · #2 03-16-2005, 09:50 PM

Fold the turn. It's too likely to get raised behind you.

LoaferGee12 · #3 03-16-2005, 09:50 PM

Edit: Listen to sharpie.

LoaferGee12 · #4 03-16-2005, 09:51 PM

n/m

thesharpie · #5 03-16-2005, 09:54 PM

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Fold the turn. It's too likely to get raised behind you.

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What action indicates this will be raise behind him? Apart from the fact that it was.

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Button has raised every street so far. Unless button has TT or overs he's probably going to raise again.

LoaferGee12 · #6 03-16-2005, 10:04 PM

Oops, misread the betting pattern.

djhoneybear · #7 03-16-2005, 10:06 PM

Personally I would have folded the flop. You have two over cards which I would give about 3 outs. The two hearts don't help your hand much either. Your implied odds make this call okay but it is very marginal either way you slice it.

On the turn you pick up three outs (the ten of hearts will probably kill your hand) but you also lose a little with your over cards as both a K and a Q make a high card straight possible. So lets call it 6 outs. You do have enough to call but your position makes this uncomfortable. When the button raises you it kills your overcard outs (he's saying that he has two pair or better). Now you have three outs and are getting 13 to 1 to call a raise. Again - if you factor in implied odds this becomes a call but is still a marginal situation. (I'm not suggesting folding but you should realize that if a Q or K comes on the river you probably still have the second best hand). The best part of this hand is that you made the nuts.

btspider · #8 03-16-2005, 10:07 PM

you can probably just fold the flop.

William Wilson · #9 03-16-2005, 10:24 PM

You would really fold the flop for 14.5 to 1 (and probably 15.5 to 1)? That's interesting. To me, there's no way I can fold to one bet here for 6, 5, 4 or even 3 outs.

On the turn, I wasn't even thinking about the K or Q (although I'd call on the end for that price if one fell). I was thinking about the 4 outs to the nuts. I probably wouldn't have called the raise cold on the turn here, but for $2 more in that pot ...

Extremely lucky here, and the turn play is debatable (especially when the BB woke up) but how can anyone fold on the flop? Of course I'm probably beat, but that doesn't mean it's incorrect.

GrunchCan · #10 03-16-2005, 10:32 PM

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To me, there's no way I can fold to one bet here for 6, 5, 4 or even 3 outs.

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This thinking is bad poker. In micros, every decision to continue with a hand must be based on pot odds. If you don;t have the odds to call a bet, then it would be -EV to call the bet. Its as simple as that.

In this case, button's PF 3-bet narrows his range of hands enough so that our Hero must discount his overcard outs by a fair degree. I'd say each is worth 0.5 outs, plus he has a backdoor nut straight draw on a 2-suit board, worth about 1 out. Maybe 1.25. Hero's hand is worth about 2 outs on the flop. The pot is nowhere near big enough to call with such a weak hand, and Hero must fold.

Calling is really, really bad.